OPEC lowers its forecast for global oil demand.

On May 13, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 1.2 million barrels per day, down from its previous forecast of 1.4 million barrels per day.

An oil refinery in Geelong, Australia. Photo: THX/VNA

In its monthly oil market report, OPEC stated that global oil demand remains healthy, but the consumption outlook is under pressure from rising energy prices and persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

Conversely, OPEC raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027 to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day, 200,000 barrels per day higher than its assessment in April. This move indicates that OPEC still expects energy demand to recover as the global economy stabilizes and transportation and industrial activity accelerate again.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the global oil market is entering a period of severe supply shortages due to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the IEA, more than 14 million barrels of oil per day are currently stalled, causing global oil reserves to fall at a "record rate." In March and April alone, world oil reserves decreased by approximately 250 million barrels.

The IEA said the current supply shock is unprecedented, forcing many countries to release oil from strategic reserves to stabilize the market. The agency forecasts that oil prices will continue to fluctuate sharply during the summer, a period when fuel demand typically increases.

According to the latest IEA assessment, global oil demand in the second quarter of 2026 could fall by 2.45 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year due to rising fuel prices, a weakening economy, and widespread energy conservation measures. For the whole year, oil demand is projected to decrease by approximately 1.3 million barrels per day compared to pre-crisis scenarios.

Several other organizations have also offered mixed outlooks on the oil market in the coming years. The IEA forecasts a potential market deficit of approximately 1.78 million barrels per day in 2026 if Middle Eastern supply is not fully restored. Meanwhile, OPEC believes that global oil supply and demand are likely to remain relatively balanced in the medium term.

Analysts believe the global energy market is currently being simultaneously impacted by geopolitical risks, OPEC+ production policies, and the shift towards clean energy. Brent crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, increasing inflationary pressure and energy costs in many major economies.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/opec-ha-du-bao-nhu-cau-dau-toan-cau-20260513200928167.htm