Impacts and 3 scenarios when the US imposes retaliatory tariffs on Vietnam.

In the event of retaliatory tariffs imposed by the US, Vietnam's GDP would decrease by 0.7-1.3% compared to the baseline scenario. Three scenarios could unfold if President Trump includes Vietnam on the list of countries subject to retaliatory tariffs.

According to Reuters, US President Donald Trump announced he would unveil a large-scale tariff plan starting April 2nd.

President Donald Trump announced that the retaliatory tariff policy targets all countries, not just a group of 10-15 countries with the largest trade surpluses with the United States.

According to an analysis by KBSV Securities, it is estimated that, in the event of retaliatory tariffs imposed by the US, Vietnam's GDP would decrease by 0.7-1.3% compared to the baseline scenario. KBSV assesses three possible scenarios if Mr. Trump includes Vietnam on the list of countries subject to retaliatory tariffs:

Scenario 1: Vietnam is subject to retaliatory tariffs excluding VAT. The US could increase the average tariff rate by an additional 5.8% on goods imported from Vietnam.

Scenario 2: Vietnam faces retaliatory tariffs that take VAT into account. Mr. Trump may also consider other trade barriers that other countries are applying, such as VAT. The retaliatory tariff could reach approximately 11% .

Scenario 3: Vietnam is not subject to retaliatory tariffs. The Vietnamese government has been very proactive in establishing diplomatic relations with the US. Specifically, Vietnam became a comprehensive strategic partner with the US in September 2023.

In addition, Vietnam is also planning to increase its purchases of goods from the US. Earlier, on the morning of March 26, the Ministry of Finance proposed reducing the most-favored-nation tariff rate on 14 key products exported from the US to create opportunities to boost imports from that country, while simultaneously reducing Vietnam's trade surplus.

Even if the US positively assesses Vietnam's actions, there is still a possibility that Vietnam will not be included on the US list in this review. If Vietnam is included on the US list of countries subject to retaliatory tariffs, it can still reverse the situation by proactively making further adjustments to balance the tariff policies between the two countries, thereby creating a basis for negotiations with the US.

According to VNA/Vietnam+

Source: https://baogialai.com.vn/tac-dong-va-3-kich-ban-khi-my-ap-thue-doi-ung-voi-viet-nam-post317347.html