Impact and 3 scenarios when the US imposes reciprocal taxes on Vietnam

According to Reuters, US President Donald Trump announced that he will announce a large-scale tariff plan starting April 2.

President Donald Trump announced that the reciprocal tax policy is aimed at all countries, not just a group of 10-15 countries with the largest trade surplus with the US.

According to analysis by KBSV Securities Company, it is estimated that in case of reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US, Vietnam's GDP will decrease by 0.7-1.3% compared to the baseline scenario. KBSV assesses 3 possible scenarios if Mr. Trump puts Vietnam on the list of countries subject to reciprocal tariffs:

Scenario 1: Vietnam is subject to reciprocal tariffs excluding VAT. The US could increase the average tariff by 5.8% on goods imported from Vietnam.

Scenario 2: Vietnam is subject to reciprocal tariffs taking into account VAT. Mr. Trump may also consider other trade barriers that other countries are applying, typically VAT. The reciprocal tariff rate could be up to approximately 11% .

Scenario 3: Vietnam is not subject to reciprocal tariffs. The Vietnamese government has been very proactive in establishing diplomatic relations with the US. Specifically, Vietnam has become a comprehensive strategic partner with the US since September 2023.

In addition, Vietnam is also planning to increase purchases of goods from the US. Earlier, on the morning of March 26, the Ministry of Finance proposed reducing the most-favored-nation tax rate on 14 products mainly exported from the US to create opportunities to promote imports of products from this country, while reducing Vietnam's trade surplus.

In case the US positively evaluates Vietnam’s actions, there is still a possibility that Vietnam will not be included in the US list during this review period. In case the US puts Vietnam on the list of reciprocal tariffs, Vietnam can still reverse the situation by proactively making more balanced adjustments to the tariff policies between the two countries, thereby having a basis for negotiations with the US.

According to VNA/Vietnam+

Source: https://baogialai.com.vn/tac-dong-va-3-kich-ban-khi-my-ap-thue-doi-ung-voi-viet-nam-post317347.html