The world before the El Niño test

The world has just experienced the hottest year in observational history. And now, scientists are issuing a worrying warning, as a new El Niño cycle has formed and could become the strongest ever recorded.

If current predictions come true, this will be more than just a weather story. El Niño could become a major test of food security, economic stability, and resilience for many nations already vulnerable to war, public debt, and climate change.

Satellite imagery from Sentinel-6 on June 8, 2026, shows an unusual band of warm water stretching across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (red), a sign that El Niño is developing strongly. Image: NASA/JPL-Caltech

On June 11th, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially confirmed the return of El Niño. According to forecasts from numerous climate centers worldwide , sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region could be 2.5 to over 3 degrees Celsius higher than average in the coming months.

If that happens, it would be the strongest El Niño in at least 75 years, surpassing the record set during the 1982-1983 period.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that forms when wind patterns over the Pacific Ocean change, leading to the accumulation of an unusually warm mass of seawater. While not a direct cause of climate change, El Niño can amplify human-induced global warming.

History shows that every strong El Niño event has far-reaching consequences.

The 1997-1998 El Niño event made 1998 the hottest year on record at that time. A similar scenario repeated itself after the 2015-2016 El Niño period, with global temperatures continuing to break records.

Currently, 2024 holds the record for the hottest year ever recorded, with global average temperatures approximately 1.6 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. Many climate models suggest that 2027 could well set a new record.

However, rising temperatures are only part of the story.

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What worries experts even more is that El Niño is often accompanied by disruptions to weather patterns on a global scale. Severe droughts can occur in one place while extreme rain and flooding happen elsewhere. These abrupt changes in rainfall and temperature often directly impact agricultural production, water resources, and the livelihoods of millions of people.

Previous El Niño events have caused devastating damage in East Africa, Southern Africa, Central America, and Oceania. Prolonged droughts have resulted in crop failures, barren pastures, and food shortages for millions of people.

The United Nations believes these areas continue to be risk hotspots in this El Niño cycle.

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Southern Africa and the Sahel region – a semi-arid belt south of the Sahara Desert – are particularly vulnerable. The 2023-2024 El Niño event, although only of moderate intensity with sea surface temperatures about 1.5°C higher than normal, contributed to the most severe drought in Southern Africa in over a century.

In Somalia, the FAO warns the country may face a double scenario: a prolonged drought lasting until October before heavy rains arrive later in the year. But heavy rainfall after a long dry spell isn't always good news. Hardened soil makes it difficult for water to seep into the ground, increasing the risk of flash floods and inundation.

Beyond Africa, many areas in Central America, the Caribbean, and Asia are also projected to face water shortages in the coming months.

The worrying thing is that El Niño is emerging at a time when the world has become far more fragile than in previous cycles.

Many of the most vulnerable countries are still grappling with war, political instability, and food crises. The Iran war and the recent disruption to the Strait of Hormuz have impacted global fertilizer supplies, increasing pressure on agricultural production in many regions.

The European Commission has warned of the risk of a humanitarian crisis in several countries, including Sudan, Somalia, South Sudan, Chad, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Haiti, if climate shocks continue to compound existing difficulties.

Of course, the world is not entirely powerless against El Niño. Measures such as using drought-resistant crops, water conservation, stockpiling animal feed, and building early warning systems have proven effective over the years.

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However, experience from previous El Niño cycles shows that early action is always far cheaper than dealing with the consequences later.

What worries experts is not only the strength of this El Niño, but also the timing of its appearance. With many parts of the world still grappling with conflict, inflation, public debt, and food shortages, a new climate shock could plunge millions into crisis.

If current predictions come true, El Niño will not only be the most notable weather phenomenon of 2027. It could become a major test of the world's resilience in an era of increasingly extreme climate.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/the-gioi-truoc-phep-thu-el-nino-1207856.html