continued to decline for the fifth consecutive session.

Copper futures for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.9%.

Copper futures for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.9% to $9,305 per ton, the lowest level since April 8.

The LME currency is on track to fall 5.8% weekly, its biggest weekly decline since August 2022.

Copper futures on the US Comex exchange fell 0.9% to $4.23 per pound.

This week's key political meeting between China, the leading metal consumer, and the global economy failed to provide any details on further stimulus measures, despite weaker-than-expected second-quarter economic growth data.

Tom Price, head of commodity strategy at Panmure Liberum, said: “I think the market is currently really bearish on China and speculators are pulling out some money. The government is trying to steer it from a raw materials-intensive narrative to a third-tier economy . This is not a happy place and it is inherently driving commodity prices down.”

Industry participants and analysts say that this year's copper ore shortage has forced some smelters in China to cut production, and more cuts are likely next year as raw material supplies are expected to tighten further.

Refined copper output at China’s leading producer is being closely watched by investors, who are betting on tight long-term supply due to growing demand for energy conversion technology. The closure of First Quantum’s Panama Cobre mine in December and production cuts elsewhere have limited the supply of raw materials to smelters.

CRU, a research and consulting firm, predicts a global copper shortage of 1.1 million tonnes of copper concentrate by 2025. This could lead to the closure of 300,000 tonnes of capacity, a 640,000 tonnes reduction in demand from smelters, decreased utilization rates, and delays in approximately 150,000 smelter projects.

While large smelters dependent on annual purchase contracts are less affected by the concentrate shortage because they have signed processing and refining fee (TC and RC) agreements at $80/tonne and 8 cents/pound for this year's supply, smaller producers are under pressure to cut production.

In the first half of this year, several small and medium-sized smelters in China cut output, while larger companies like Jinchuan cut output at two plants in one month by 10% and 20% respectively, and Baiyin cut output at one smelter by 20-30% in March, CRU said in a June report.

An unnamed official at a medium-sized smelter said, "As supply shortages worsen, more smelters will take action to cut production."

According to analysts and market participants, falling spot TC and expectations of a sharp decline in benchmark prices next year have prompted some smelters to plan production cuts by 2025.

CRU analyst Craig Lang said: “With the 2025 annual TC/RC benchmark expected to be uneconomical for most smelters, they will likely be less incentivized to operate at high utilization rates.”

Two people familiar with the matter said Baotou Huading Copper Industrial Development Company stated at a meeting of leading smelters last week that it may cut production by 40% next year. The company has an annual capacity of 30,000 tonnes of refined copper and 200,000 tonnes of blister.

Official data shows that, despite tightening controls, China's refined copper output increased by 7% in the first half of this year to 6.67 million tonnes.

Source: https://kinhtedothi.vn/gia-kim-loai-dong-ngay-22-7-tiep-tiep-giam-phien-thu-5.html