Finding new drivers for Vietnam's economy.

With a growth target of over 8% this year and double-digit growth next year, many economic experts emphasize that Vietnam needs to unlock new growth drivers. So, what growth drivers does Vietnam need to unlock and develop?

Accelerate the divestment of state-owned enterprises.

Economist Dr. Phung Duc Tung, Director of the Mekong Institute for Research and Development, said that the government is focusing on maintaining and targeting double-digit growth; boosting public investment, especially in faster infrastructure development; and addressing institutional bottlenecks to create a transparent business environment, adhering to the principle that businesses and citizens have the right to do what the state does not prohibit. Dr. Tung emphasized: "These issues are not entirely new, but in the current context, they are crucial for growth. In particular, I focus on boosting public investment."

According to experts, boosting public investment is a driving force for growth. (In the photo: The roof of the Long Thanh airport passenger terminal is under construction.)

PHOTO: LE LAM

Dr. Phung Duc Tung wondered: "If we accelerate public investment further, where will the investment capital come from? There is an important point that has not been mentioned or clarified in the suggestions to stimulate investment: the complete divestment of state-owned enterprises. Our market economy development strategy has long set out a plan to divest state-owned enterprises, especially those in sectors unrelated to national security. Currently, the resources from state-owned enterprises are enormous. According to data from the Ministry of Finance , the value from this sector reaches over 400,000 billion VND, equivalent to nearly 20 billion USD. If we divest, the national budget will receive a large amount of financial resources, enough to solve major national problems and help achieve strong growth. Historically, we have successfully divested some state-owned enterprises such as Vinamilk and Sabeco… When state-owned enterprises are privately operated, they will certainly be more efficient, even helping to collect higher taxes and contribute to GDP growth."

That's also the government's objective: anything the private sector can do, unrelated to national security, the state shouldn't retain. It's important to note that once enterprises have divested, they shouldn't retain several tens of percent of state capital anymore; that's unnecessary. The funds obtained from this divestment should continue to be invested in public projects and infrastructure development without needing to borrow heavily from abroad, thus helping the economy grow better. Therefore, this is a crucial driving force for double-digit economic growth."

Dr. Phung Duc Tung cited examples of state-owned enterprises in sectors such as chemicals, mining, and even electricity, all of which could be divested early. Vinamilk still has state-owned shares, so it should be completely divested. Similarly, in the banking sector, the number of banks with large state-owned capital should be reduced. Dr. Phung Duc Tung emphasized: "State divestment must be addressed and included in the plan for vigorous implementation over the next five years. It must be done more decisively, not just selling off a few tens of percent of state capital and then claiming it's been divested."   "We've divested, but we need to focus on substance. We must allow private ownership of a large percentage, enabling private participation in operations and decision-making according to international standards and practices, leading to better profits and attracting faster foreign investment. In addition, it will provide more abundant resources for infrastructure investment."

Boosting export markets and accelerating the growth of the domestic market.

According to the General Statistics Office, 2025 is the final year of the 2021-2025 medium-term public investment plan, with a record public investment level of up to VND 791,000 billion (equivalent to 6.4% of GDP) approved by the National Assembly. The Government has clearly stated that this year's public investment plan will continue to have many innovations, focusing on prioritizing investment in key sectors and fields of the economy, allocating capital to important national and key transportation projects with a ripple effect, promoting socio-economic development…

Associate Professor Nguyen Thuong Lang, a senior lecturer at the Institute of International Trade and Economics, commented: "If public investment disbursement is increased by 10% compared to last year, it will significantly improve economic growth. However, it is necessary to create a level playing field for private capital to flow into innovation through the financial market. Previously, a large amount of private capital flowed into gold and savings. We shouldn't let money sit idle, and we shouldn't let people become complacent in their saving habits. Stimulating consumption and creating a level playing field for private capital to participate is essential," Professor Lang proposed.

This expert also believes that by simply renewing existing drivers, exploiting them more deeply and intelligently, the growth rate could approach 9%, not the 8% target set by the Government. Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang emphasized: The driving force of an economy always comes from both domestic and international sources. With an international market of over 8 billion people, there is still enormous potential for expanding sales abroad.

"Vietnam is one of the countries with a highly open economy. To date, Vietnam has signed almost all free trade agreements (FTAs) with important markets, both multilateral and bilateral. We often talk about the advantages of exporting by expanding markets and bringing key products to major markets, but this effort seems to be concentrated in a few businesses, fragmented, and lacking deep participation and enhancement of the position of Vietnamese goods in the global supply chain at the national level. Our exports are only over 400 billion USD, which is too small compared to the global market spending 7,000-8,000 billion USD on goods. Therefore, the impetus for deeper exploitation and enhancement of our position in foreign markets is enormous. Secondly, regarding the domestic market, in 2024 we are spending over 380 billion USD importing goods from abroad for consumption and production. The impetus to reduce imports and achieve self-sufficiency in raw materials and goods for the domestic market needs to be maximized. "If just 1/4 of that 380 billion USD were spent on domestic purchases, we would have nearly 100 billion USD saved from flowing abroad," Mr. Lang stated.

Policies at this time need to focus on supporting workers and export-oriented businesses to increase competitiveness and maintain production even in unfavorable conditions. With interest rates currently low, there is limited room for further reductions. The State Bank of Vietnam may need to prepare a plan to continue debt restructuring for businesses if necessary.

Dr. Nguyen Duc Do, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance (Academy of Finance)

Dr. Nguyen Duc Do, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance (Academy of Finance), also agreed: The economic growth target that Vietnam has set for this year and the coming years can be achieved if the global economic context is favorable. Exports are the main driving force of the economy, as they are the output for many other industries. In 2024, we achieved a record export turnover of over 400 billion USD, especially with many key products exceeding expectations. Currently, our biggest advantage is our participation in many bilateral and multilateral FTAs. This provides a basis for businesses to accelerate the development of new markets.

However, to achieve its goals, Vietnam needs to prepare in advance support plans for the economy in case the global economic situation suddenly deteriorates. "Policies at this time need to focus on supporting workers and export-oriented businesses to increase competitiveness and maintain production even in unfavorable conditions. Currently, interest rates are low, so there is not much room for further reductions. The State Bank of Vietnam may need to prepare plans to continue debt restructuring for businesses if necessary," Mr. Do noted.

The government is determined to implement major programs and projects such as the North-South high-speed railway, nuclear power, and attracting major technology companies. These programs will have a profound impact on the economy. Businesses in infrastructure construction, building materials (steel, cement, asphalt), logistics, residential real estate, and industrial manufacturing are expected to benefit from these public investment projects.

Thanhnien.vn

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/tim-dong-luc-moi-cho-kinh-te-vn-18525021020512762.htm