"We are nearing, or may have already reached, a point where the number of nuclear weapons worldwide will gradually decrease," Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI, based in Sweden), told AFP.
The total number of nuclear warheads held by nine countries – Britain, China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, and the United States – decreased from 12,710 at the beginning of 2022 to 12,512 at the beginning of 2023, according to AFP, citing data from SIPRI. Of these, 9,576 warheads are in " military stockpiles for use," 86 more than the previous year.
SIPRI distinguishes between countries' available reserves for use and total reserves, including older reserves that are expected to be phased out.
China's DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, is displayed during a military parade in Beijing.
"The stockpile consists of usable nuclear warheads, and those numbers are starting to increase," Smith observed, noting that the number is still a long way from the more than 70,000 seen in the 1980s. However, he cautioned: "The overall picture is that we've had over 30 years of declining nuclear warhead numbers, and we see that process coming to an end."
Among the countries that increased their nuclear arsenals, China is estimated to have seen a significant increase, from 350 to 410 warheads. India, Pakistan, and North Korea also increased their stockpiles, and Russia increased to a lesser extent, from 4,477 to 4,489, while the remaining countries maintained the size of their arsenals. Russia and the United States together still account for nearly 90% of the world's total nuclear weapons.
The US says it is under pressure from China and North Korea to modernize its nuclear weapons.
Researchers at SIPRI also noted that diplomatic efforts toward nuclear arms control and disarmament had failed after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
They pointed out that the US suspended "bilateral strategic stability dialogue" with Russia after Moscow launched its military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. By February 2023, Moscow announced its suspension of participation in the Treaty on Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Weapons (New START), signed with the US in 2010.
SIPRI noted in a statement that New START "is the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty limiting the strategic nuclear forces of Russia and the United States."
Mr. Smith stated that the increase in nuclear weapons stockpiles due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict cannot be explained because it takes longer to develop new warheads, and much of this increase is in countries not directly affected.
China has also invested heavily in its military as its economy and influence have grown. "What we are seeing is China rising to become a world power, that is the reality of our time," Smith said, according to AFP.
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