The forecast for Vietnam's economic growth in the second quarter of 2025, made by the Global Market and Economic Research Department of UOB Bank (Singapore), announced on the afternoon of June 9, stated that the Vietnamese Dong (VND) will continue to fluctuate in a weak price range within the trading range with the USD until the end of the third quarter of 2025. However, from the fourth quarter of 2025 onwards, VND may begin to regain its recovery momentum, in line with the general improvement trend of Asian currencies as trade instability gradually eases. UOB also updated the forecast for the USD/VND exchange rate as follows: VND 26,300 in the third quarter of 2025, VND 26,100 in the fourth quarter of 2025, VND 25,900 in the first quarter of 2026 and VND 25,700 in the second quarter of 2026.
According to UOB, in the second quarter of 2025, the VND weakened against regional currencies, depreciating 1.8%, hitting a new record low of around VND26,000/USD. This weakness mainly stems from the less positive economic outlook. "We have lowered our GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 6.0%, compared to 7.09% in 2024," said UOB experts.
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| VND regains recovery momentum from Q4/2025. Photo: Duy Minh |
Regarding interest rates, OUB experts also forecast that the State Bank will keep its policy interest rates unchanged for the time being. Accordingly, inflation in Vietnam has cooled down somewhat, at around 3.1% year-on-year in both March and April, down from an average of 3.6% in 2024 and 3.26% in 2023, and still below the target of 4.5%. The context of moderate inflation while global trade tensions and increasing tariff uncertainties are opening up the possibility of the State Bank of Vietnam easing monetary policy.
However, OUB believes that, unlike some of its regional neighbors, the current weakening of the Vietnamese dong is a factor that the State Bank must consider. “In the current context, we forecast that the State Bank will keep its policy interest rate unchanged, with the refinancing rate maintained at 4.50%,” OUB’s Market Research department said.
At the same time, this financial institution also believes that if domestic business conditions and the labor market weaken seriously, it expects the State Bank to lower the refinancing rate once to a COVID-19 low of 4.00%, and then continue to reduce it by another 50 basis points to 3.50%, provided that the foreign exchange market remains stable and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts interest rates. At present, OUB's base case scenario is that the State Bank will keep policy interest rates unchanged.
Source: https://congthuong.vn/vnd-lay-lai-da-hoi-phuc-tu-quy-iv2025-391594.html
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