The four candidates are Michelle Bachelet (Chilean nationality), Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rican nationality), Rafael Grossi (Argentinian nationality), and Macky Sall (Senegalese nationality). These are the candidates who have emerged so far, and others may still run. At the end of March, Chile withdrew its nomination of Michelle Bachelet. However, she remains in the race thanks to support from Mexico and Brazil.
In the more than 80-year history of the United Nations, no woman has ever held the top position. Recently, there has been a strong movement around the world calling for the UN to have its first female Secretary-General. Following unwritten tradition, this year it is Latin America's turn to have a UN leader.
The recent interviews with candidates for the UN Secretary-General were merely formalities and procedural requirements, lacking any decisive power. This is because the UN Secretary-General is elected by the UN General Assembly, but the UN Security Council decides who the General Assembly elects. The Security Council has five permanent members with veto power: the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France. If they veto a candidate, the Security Council cannot nominate that person for the General Assembly to elect.
Therefore, whoever is nominated for Secretary-General at the United Nations General Assembly must be a candidate agreed upon by the permanent members of the UN Security Council, primarily the United States, Russia, and China. Thus, the election of the UN Secretary-General has always been a matter of "easy voting," requiring almost just one simple round of voting within the Security Council. However, the process of selecting a candidate for the election is always complex, difficult, and protracted.
Besides the candidate's gender and geographical background, the deciding factor is what issues the countries in the UN Security Council want the new Secretary-General to prioritize once elected. The United States values the candidate's competence more than their gender, thus considering Rafael Grossi as the ideal candidate, while also potentially accepting Rebeca Grynspan and not clearly expressing its stance on Macky Sall. Russia and China tend to support either Rebeca Grynspan or Macky Sall because both prioritize socio -economic development and promote multilateralism. For Russia and China, Rebeca Grynspan is more likely to be accepted than Macky Sall because it fulfills the unwritten convention regarding geographical region this year and aligns with the majority's demand that the UN should have a female Secretary-General.
While the outward appearance suggests otherwise, the outcome remains uncertain. This is partly because the four candidates mentioned are not the only options; and partly because the relationship between the US and Russia and China is more confrontational than cooperative, making any compromise difficult. This relationship is heavily influenced by the US-China trade competition, the conflict in Ukraine, and tensions between the US and Iran. Therefore, developments in all three of these issues in the coming period will profoundly influence the decision on the selection of the next UN Secretary-General.
Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/bau-de-chon-kho-746738.html
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