Bitcoin plummets, billions of dollars flee in record flight, where is the bottom?

(Dan Tri Newspaper) - $1.33 billion has fled the market in just one week - a historical record that is pushing Bitcoin into a precarious situation. With such a massive outflow of capital, what kind of shock price scenario awaits?

According to data from Bloomberg, Bitcoin had a turbulent start to the week, with the price sliding below $88,000/BTC, even touching $86,000 at one point – its lowest level since early 2026. Compared to its peak of nearly $126,000 set at the end of 2025, the cryptocurrency has lost approximately 25% of its value in just six months.

In stark contrast to the gloomy crypto market, gold is shining brightly. Coingape notes that the price of gold has officially broken all historical records, surpassing the important psychological threshold of $5,000 per ounce, even touching $5,100 during Asian trading.

This divergence reveals a harsh reality for those who advocate the idea that "bitcoin is digital gold."

Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 25% in the last six months and is currently trading below $88,000 (Illustration: CryptoTicker).

The "sharks" quietly withdraw their troops.

The most worrying aspect of this downturn is not the panic among individual investors, but the systematic withdrawal of large institutions.

According to analysis from Great Speculations (Trefis), capital flows from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US are reversing sharply. In the week ending January 23 alone, these funds saw net outflows of $1.33 billion – a record weekly figure since February 2025.

Notably, the two giants leading this wave are BlackRock's IBIT fund and Fidelity's FBTC. The fact that leading financial institutions are cutting their positions suggests this is a structural risk reduction process, not simply short-term profit-taking. On-chain data also reinforces this view, as the group of "savvy" investors (holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC) are distributing assets similarly to the period just before the 2022 crash.

In addition, legal uncertainty has dealt a significant blow to market sentiment. Coinbase's withdrawal of its support for the CLARITY Act, coupled with concerns about a potential US government shutdown, has severely shaken investor confidence.

What's the scenario for Bitcoin: $56,000 or a deeper abyss?

The biggest question right now is: Where will this correction stop?

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is losing key support levels. The price is currently trading below the 365-day moving average (around $101,000). Signals from momentum indicators such as MACD and RSI suggest that sellers are in control.

According to experts from CryptoQuant, as quoted by Trefis, if the current price level is not maintained, Bitcoin's medium-term downside target could be $70,000. In a worse-case scenario, the price could fall to $56,000 – the "exercise price" where past bear markets have typically bottomed out.

However, the market still harbors far more pessimistic views. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns of an 80% risk of a drop to $25,000. Even Mike McGlone of Bloomberg mentions the extreme possibility of a $10,000 decline. It's important to emphasize, however, that these are "tail" risks, only occurring in the event of a severe global economic recession or a complete collapse of institutional capital flows.

One glimmer of hope is that the "leverage cleaning" process appears to be complete. The volume of open contracts in the derivatives market has decreased by 40% from its peak, mitigating the risk of sudden price crashes due to chain liquidations.

Waiting for the "east wind" from mid-2026

Although the short-term outlook is rather bleak, the long-term prospects for bitcoin are not entirely hopeless. History has shown that after deep corrections of 40-50%, the market typically needs 6-16 months to recover and establish new highs.

Observers are pinning their hopes on the second half of 2026 with two main catalysts. First, a change in the leadership of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) next May could bring a fresh impetus to more accommodative monetary policy. Second, if the legal framework is finalized through new legislation, $50 billion in institutional capital could return to the market.

Conservative forecasts suggest that, if it weathers the current storm and holds the support zone of $84,000 (the average cost basis of ETF investors), Bitcoin could fully recover and aim for $120,000-$170,000 by the end of the year.

Sean McNulty, Head of Derivatives Trading at FalconX, commented on Bloomberg: "The slight rebound at the beginning of the week was more of a pause than a strong rebound. The market is still waiting for a clearer signal from the money flow."

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/bitcoin-roi-tu-do-ty-usd-thao-chay-ky-luc-day-sau-o-dau-20260126211814171.htm