Scenarios for US tax policy

Currently, the Government is preparing all necessary conditions to negotiate with the US on tariffs. The average tax rate announced by the US in early April 2025 on imported goods from Vietnam is 46%, the third highest in the ASEAN region (after Cambodia and Laos). However, Cambodia and Laos are less affected because their exports to the US are quite small; while Vietnam's export turnover to the US accounts for about 30% of its total export turnover. After that, through negotiations, the US extended the tax for 90 days for Vietnam and many countries to conduct bilateral negotiations with each country.

Businesses in Vietnam are very worried and expect the Government to successfully negotiate with the US to reduce tariffs on goods exported to the US. Thus, Vietnam's exports will be less affected.

According to Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV , member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, there are three scenarios for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 in the face of the US's tariff increase policy. The first scenario is that Vietnam negotiates with the US to reduce the reciprocal tax rate to 20-25% and it will take effect from July 9, 2025 within a year or sooner. After that, if we continue to negotiate a lower tax rate, Vietnam's exports will decrease by 6-7.5 billion USD, realized foreign investment will decrease by 3-5% and GDP will grow by 6.5-7%. Scenario 2, Vietnam does not make much progress in trade negotiations with the US, is subject to a 46% reciprocal tax on goods from Vietnam to the US, from the beginning of July 2025, exports will decrease by 22-24 billion USD, foreign investment will decrease by 6-8% and GDP will grow by about 5.5-6%. With scenario 3, Vietnam successfully negotiates with the US and is only subject to a 10% tax on goods exported to the US as it is now, then exports and foreign investment will be insignificantly affected, GDP growth will reach 7.5-8%.

Dong Nai has a large export turnover to the US, accounting for more than 33% of the province's total export turnover. Therefore, domestic and foreign enterprises in the province are expecting the Government to successfully negotiate with the US to reduce taxes, without affecting production and business activities. In particular, enterprises and associations hope that the Government will be steadfast, pay more attention to measures to promote mutually beneficial cooperation with the US, strengthen dialogue and negotiations through channels. At the same time, the Government will soon implement specific solutions to balance trade with the US. Specifically, increase imports from the US, continue to reduce reciprocal taxes on goods imported from the US... There are policies to support businesses and industries that are negatively affected by the US's new tariff policy, stimulate domestic investment and consumption, and expand exports to other countries.

Huong Giang

Source: https://baodongnai.com.vn/kinh-te/202505/cac-kich-ban-dat-ra-truoc-chinh-sach-thue-cua-my-6043cc0/