Europe faces persistent gas price pressure extending into 2027.

VTV.vn - HSBC predicts that the conflict in Iran and LNG disruptions will keep gas prices high in the medium term.

The Balkan Stream gas pipeline system in Serbia. (Photo: IBNA/VNA)

According to the latest report from HSBC, natural gas prices in Europe in 2026 will be up to 40% higher than previous forecasts and will remain high until the end of 2027. The main reason identified is the conflict in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a severe supply shortage.

A London-based investment bank forecasts that the price of natural gas futures in the Netherlands – considered the benchmark for the European market – will average $14 per million British thermal units (BTU) next year, before potentially falling to around $8.5 per million BTU from 2028 onwards.

Currently, about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) is transported through the Strait of Hormuz. This vital waterway has been almost completely paralyzed since military operations by the US, Israel, and Iran began last month. The report highlights that disruptions to LNG supply will force European countries to pay significantly higher prices for the fuel. Meanwhile, Asian countries – which import around 26% of their LNG from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – are also struggling to find alternative sources of supply.

Europe is particularly vulnerable to LNG supply shocks as the region's inventories are about 15 percentage points lower than the five-year average, following a harsh winter that increased demand for heating and fuel for power plants.

In contrast to the situation in Europe, US natural gas futures prices have remained largely unchanged thanks to abundant reserves. Furthermore, US LNG export ports are operating near maximum capacity, helping the world's largest natural gas exporter avoid the direct impact of global supply shocks.

Source: https://vtv.vn/chau-au-doi-mat-ap-luc-gia-khi-dot-keo-dai-den-2027-100260317161916024.htm