After withdrawing from the Black Sea grain agreement, Russia focused its efforts on attacking seaports and Danube ports to try to prevent Ukraine from exporting agricultural products.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative was negotiated by the United Nations and Turkey and signed in Istanbul in July 7, allowing Ukraine to export millions of tons of corn, wheat and other agricultural products by sea. world market.
Since the initiative began in August 8, nearly 2022 million tons of Ukrainian grain have been exported through the Black Sea, before the last cargo ship left the Eastern European country on July 33. Russia on July 16 announced the termination of the agreement.
After withdrawing from the agreement, Russia conducted consecutive air strikes against Odessa, one of three ports in the Black Sea that are very important for Ukraine's grain exports. The raid targeting two warehouses in Chornomorsk city, Odessa province, on the night of July 19 destroyed about 7 tons of agricultural products, according to Ukrainian officials.
The grain warehouse in Reni port, Odessa province was damaged after a Russian attack. Image: with the BBC
After repeatedly launching missiles and drones (UAVs) at Ukraine's export ports along the Black Sea coast, Russia shifted its targets to inland ports along the Danube River, located on the border between Ukraine and Romania.
Ukraine currently depends heavily on these river ports to export grain to neighboring Romania, from where it can be transported further afield.
Ukrainian officials said Russia continuously attacked this river port system in September, including three-hour UAV raids. The attack on Reni port caused the UAV fragment to fall about 9 meters from the border with NATO member Romania.
Zatoka Bridge, an important route allowing grain trucks to enter the port of Izmail on the Danube River, was also repeatedly attacked.
“With the grain deal suspended, Ukraine's maximum grain export capacity, based on rivers, roads and railways, will drop to 2,5 million tons per month,” Mariia Bogonos, expert agricultural policy at the Kiev School of Economics, said.
Most of this grain is transported through the Danube River, Ukraine's main export waterway today, said Andrey Sizov, an expert on the Black Sea agricultural market.
Observers believe that Russia's continuous raid tactics on Danube ports could cause further disruption to Ukrainian grain flows, partly impacting Europe and the world, causing global wheat prices to continue. increase. Wheat prices have increased more than 10% since the collapse of the Black Sea Grains Initiative.
Dozens of grain ships are plying the Danube and waiting at its mouth, according to global shipping market tracker Lloyd's List. The narrow waterway corridor on the Danube River makes it impossible for ships to move as freely as on the Black Sea.
Location of the Danube and Black Sea region. Graphics: FT
Lloyd's List said increased risks at Danube ports from Russian raids forced many traders to assess the feasibility of Ukraine's remaining grain export routes.
Grain can also be transported by truck or train, but agricultural experts say this is not a cost-effective option.
“The reason grain is shipped in large quantities by ship is because of its low cost. Other routes will increase costs, causing grain prices to increase," said Mike Lee, an agricultural expert specializing in Eastern Europe.
Mr. Lee added that when Ukraine abandons Danube river ports in favor of increasing grain exports by rail or road, those routes could easily become Russia's next target.
“If Russia is determined to block Ukraine's grain exports, it will start attacking railway infrastructure. They haven't done it yet, but that could be the next step,” he said.
Thanh Tam (Follow with the BBC)
