Combating climate change: Slow but steady.

Progress towards achieving climate change mitigation goals remains slow, but some tangible results have been achieved.

COP28 in Dubai will assess the progress of countries participating in the Framework Convention on Climate Change in fulfilling their commitments. (Source: Shutterstock)

For many, the agreement reached at the 25th Conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP25) in Paris may not have achieved everything they wanted. It wasn't legally binding and didn't end the era of fossil fuel use. However, that agreement did set some rules for subsequent COPs. From there, COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), will be the first time countries have assessed what they have accomplished and what they haven't, working together towards the ultimate goal.

A positive milestone…

In some respects, the results of global efforts to combat climate change have been more positive than many had predicted. At the time of COP25, experts predicted that by 2100, the Earth could warm by up to 3 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels if countries did not change their policies.

Under current policies, calculations show that global warming will fluctuate between 2.5 and 2.9 degrees Celsius. This remains a worrying figure and poses a serious threat to the lives of billions of people. This is without even considering the uncertainties in policy implementation. However, this change itself represents a clear improvement compared to the previous approach.

A significant part of this progress comes from cheaper and more widespread renewable energy. In 2015, global solar power capacity was just 230 GW. By 2022, that figure had reached 1050 GW. Countries have also developed and implemented more proactive policies. In 2014, only 12% of _CO2 emissions related to energy production were subject to carbon pricing, at a price of $7 per ton. Today, that figure is 23%, with the price having increased nearly fivefold to $32 per ton.

In 2015, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that _CO2 emissions would continue to rise until the 2040s. Now, this intergovernmental advisory organization suggests that this trend could peak in the next few years. After that, countries need to rapidly reduce emissions to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. Emissions are a part of development. Therefore, contributing to reversing this trend can be considered a successful start on the journey to combat climate change.

Of course, it would be a mistake to assume that all this progress came from COP25 in Paris. However, the process initiated by this event set new expectations, making climate change a matter that nations needed to discuss. At the same time, by addressing efforts to reduce _CO2 emissions and eliminate them from the atmosphere, COP25 brought the goal of net-zero emissions to the public. In 2015, only one country had made this commitment. Eight years later, that number had risen to 101.

While the world is witnessing increasingly extreme weather events, such as the unusually hot spring in Brazil last week, the COP is a crucial forum where parties announce new ideas and seek agreements on the sidelines. Recent statements by US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping have provided momentum for an agreement on methane emissions ahead of the COP. The two countries also committed to tripling their renewable energy production by 2030, a goal the UAE hopes to promote at this year's COP28.

Recently, the US and China made important commitments on combating climate change, contributing to the progress of an agreement on methane emissions. Pictured: US President's Special Envoy for Climate Change John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua before a meeting in Beijing, China, in July 2023. (Source: Reuters)

…on the long journey

However, this does not mean that the COP mechanism single-handedly "saved" the world.

First, the agreement at COP25 in Paris created a framework for renewable energy development, but it did not provide the necessary funding for that process. According to BloombergNEF, a US-based energy research organization, the world would need twice the level of investment to triple the required renewable energy production.

Much of that capital will come from the private sector, but the impetus for those investments will come from the state. National governments must restructure energy markets, expedite the approval of relevant licenses, rapidly expand electricity networks, and eliminate remaining fossil fuel-preferential policies.

Even if everything goes smoothly, climate change won't stop anytime soon. The primary cause of global warming is the accumulation of _CO2 in the atmosphere. As long as net emissions continue, temperatures will rise. Since COP25, global warming has reached an unmissable level. Recent climate changes are proof of this: July, August, September, and October have repeatedly broken multi-year temperature records.

This dizzying pace of change will not last forever. However, the only way to stop global warming before achieving net zero emissions is to reduce the amount of sunlight the Earth absorbs, either by introducing “particles” into the stratosphere or whitening ocean clouds. The idea of ​​“solar geoengineering” worries many scientists , activists, and policymakers. Some countries think differently. Therefore, the world needs to discuss this issue at an international level, clarifying the limits and impacts of this initiative.

The world also needs to have deeper discussions about _CO2 removal mechanisms. Like “solar geotechnical engineering,” this process is of great interest to many, especially oil companies, who see it as a reason to maintain their production levels. This could make combating climate change more difficult. In this context, countries need clarity on their _CO2 removal plans for the next round of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) mechanism, which is scheduled for 2025.

Ultimately, COP alone is not enough to change the world. However, this forum can contribute to shaping the issues, the content of discussions, and the rules to promote that process. Although the world still has a long way to go in the fight against climate change, COP can be proud of what it has done for this planet.

Ultimately, COP alone is not enough to change the world. However, this forum can contribute to shaping the issues, the content of discussions, and the rules to promote that process. Although the world still has a long way to go in the fight against climate change, COP can be proud of what it has done for this planet.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/chong-bien-doi-khi-hau-cham-nhung-chac-251785.html