The Kyiv authorities launched a counteroffensive to retake territories occupied by Russia, especially in the south. While Ukrainians felt renewed optimism, their small victories came at a cost. As Ukrainian forces continued to probe for weaknesses in Russian defenses, Moscow was also seeking a direction for advance and had closed in on the city of Kupiansk, a city Russia had captured earlier in the conflict before retaking it a year earlier.
Although it is almost impossible to find precise information about the situation on the battlefield, CNN has done some analysis of key battles in the most recent phase of the conflict.
The conflict continues to this day.
Although Ukraine faced many difficulties in conducting its counteroffensive, we must also remember that this conflict did not progress in the direction that Russian President Vladimir Putin desired.
In 2022, after witnessing the withdrawal of Russian troops from the area around Kyiv and other regions in northern Ukraine, the Ukrainian army achieved several important victories in the eastern Kharkiv region and the southern Kherson region.
The conflict in 2023 is somewhat different, with soldiers on both sides bogged down in a slow-moving conflict with no end in sight. The current fighting is concentrated primarily in eastern and southern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces are struggling to break through the defenses that the Russian army has fortified for months. Success there has been limited to recapturing villages, rather than cities.
Southern Front
In the Zaporizhzhia region of southern Ukraine, Ukraine's small advances in the countryside are hampered by Russian defenses. Russian soldiers have fortified these territories with numerous minefields, anti-tank trenches, booby traps, and fortifications.
This region is a key target for Ukraine. A deeper advance into this territory via two counter-offensives would give Ukraine the opportunity to cut off the land bridge between Crimea and the eastern Donetsk region, which has been under Russian control since 2014.
In late August, Ukrainian troops successfully recaptured Robotyne, a new advance that brought them closer to launching self-propelled artillery attacks on the central city of Tokmak. However, much work remains to be done before achieving this goal.
Data as of September 6, 2023.
Ukraine has recaptured some territory around the town of Velyka Novosilka. In June, during the second week of the counteroffensive, they liberated several villages: Neskuchne, Blahodatne, and Makarivka. More recently, they recaptured the villages of Staromaiorske and Urozhaine, but further progress has been hampered. Russian forces have also launched several counteroffensives.
Velyka Novosilka has been subjected to relentless shelling for the past year and a half. Facing significant difficulties in dealing with Russian airstrikes targeting the town, Kyiv has appealed to Western countries for assistance, including the provision of F-16 fighter jets and other air support capabilities.
The town of Orikhiv has been caught in the crossfire. Although under Ukrainian control, the town is constantly under Russian airstrikes and is frequently attacked with bombs weighing up to 500kg, sometimes up to 20 times in 20 minutes.
Located 60km southeast of Zaporizhzhia, Orikhiv is caught between Kyiv government troops heading south and Russian forces attempting to defend their position.
Russian defensive fortifications and trenches at Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, March 4, 2023. Photo: Maxar Technologies.
Kupanisk
Ukrainian forces have been trying to hold Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. The city fell early in the conflict and was liberated last September in a lightning offensive by Ukrainian troops. Now, Russian forces are attempting to retake the city.
In August, the Ukrainian government ordered the evacuation of the city and surrounding area. It was the largest evacuation in months and a sign of the severity of the fighting in the region. However, many civilians chose to remain.
For Ukrainian soldiers, Kupiansk is a strategically important city in their efforts to halt the advance of the Russian army.
Eastern Battlefield
Currently, the city of Bakhmut is under Russian control after nine months of fighting. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops control several neighboring areas southwest of the city.
An aerial photograph of the city of Bakhmut, the most intense battlefield in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, taken on June 22, 2023. Photo: Libkos/AP.
Much of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions have been occupied by pro-Russian separatists for the past nine years. These are two of the four regions in Ukraine that Moscow claims to have annexed.
The town of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, still under Ukrainian control, is a frontline town that has witnessed many fierce battles. Much of the town has been destroyed, and its residents have been evacuated.
The coming months
Ukraine is running out of time; autumn will bring increasingly worse weather and more unfavorable fighting conditions.
For a number of political and strategic reasons, pressure to achieve a breakthrough is mounting on the Ukrainian government. Kyiv needs to gain as much leverage as possible should peace negotiations succeed, or should the previously solid Western support suddenly shift.
Although the Russian military has been somewhat pushed back since the start of the military operation, it still holds several advantages. The Russian army is vastly larger than Ukraine's, and because Putin has been isolated by the conflict, he doesn't need to worry about a prolonged conflict costing him allies. Russia may even be far better suited to a war of attrition than Ukraine.
Regardless of the outcome of the counterattack, it will serve as a turning point in how this conflict ends.
Nguyen Quang Minh (according to CNN)
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