The French daily Le Figaro published an article warning about the effects of population aging on the global economy, arguing that people's current perceptions of the impact of lower birth rates and aging Longer life is not enough.
According to the Vietnam News Agency correspondent in Paris, the United Nations (UN) forecasts that with the current birth rate, from 2050, the number of children born in the world may be lower than the number of people who die. By that time, the number of people 65 and older will double, reaching 1,6 billion, or more than 16% of the population.
Over the past 50 years, life expectancy has increased by 10 years and the baby boom generation has reached retirement age. This trend is accelerating population aging, leading to increased pension and medical care costs, especially with health problems worsening as retirees' lifespans lengthen.
Elderly people exercise in Tokyo, Japan. Photo: AFP/VNA
An increase in the aging population while the young population declines has the potential to create a stronger shock. Everywhere in the world, especially in developed and emerging countries, birth rates are falling markedly. The peak is in Asia, in South Korea, where the fertility rate has dropped below 0,8, while every woman must give birth to at least 2,1 children to maintain a stable population. According to the most pessimistic forecasts, in China, the population could halve by 2100. Europe is no exception. The proportion of people aged 15-29 has changed, from 18,1% of the population in 2011 to 16,3% in 2021 in the European Union (EU). It is expected that by 2050, about 30% of Europe's population will belong to the so-called "old generation". In particular, in France, the number of births in 2022 is 723.000, the lowest since 1946.
France's population is expected to continue to grow until 2040, but one in three people will be over 3 years old, compared with one in four now. In Spain, the population is projected to decline by more than 1% by 60, while the proportion of elderly people will increase from 1% to 4%. Italy's population is likely to be halved.
Besides, the proportion of people in working age aged 15-64 is also decreasing. According to a report by the European Commission (EC), by 2050, the ratio of working-age adults per elderly person in Europe will be less than 2. Thus, the dependency ratio of the population of people The elderly relative to the working-age population will increase to 57, nearly double the current rate.
In the face of these major challenges, the issue of awareness is thought to be very important but is now being overlooked. HSBC analysts James Pomeroy and Herald van der Linde, authors of a study on the impact of demographics on economic growth, say: “The birth rate is not getting the attention it deserves. by economists or markets, such as gross domestic product (GDP) or inflation data, but few variables have such an important impact on the economy over the medium term.”
People buy goods in a supermarket in Bordeaux, France. Documentary photo: AFP/VNA
The declining working-age population puts pressure on the labor market and state welfare. In addition to rising pension costs, an older population will have more of a medical need, which will require investments and upgrades in equipment and infrastructure. The labor shortage will become more and more serious. According to the French Ministry of Labor, by 2030, an average of 640.000 young people will enter the labor market each year, while there are 760.000 vacancies. The World Bank (WB) predicts that by 2030, the EU will lack more than 4 million health workers.
Governments are rolling out plans to support and encourage couples to have children. But the drag on fertility is diverse, ranging from environmental concerns and women's propensity to delay having children, to financial constraints such as property prices, rent, and housing. child care services, cost of living… According to studies, these challenges have made 13-33% of young people not want to get married.
According to VNA/Newspapers
