GDP size exceeds $500 billion.
According to information from the Central Committee for Policy and Strategy, in 2025, the Vietnamese economy recorded many positive signs: GDP growth is expected to increase by more than 8%, bringing the size of the economy to approximately 510 billion USD, reaching the 32nd position in the world; per capita income is estimated to reach 5,000 USD, officially entering the group of upper-middle-income countries.
The consumer price index increase was kept below 4%; macroeconomic stability continued to be maintained, ensuring major economic balances. State budget revenue reached over 2.4 trillion VND, exceeding the annual forecast by 25%; public debt decreased sharply to approximately 36% of GDP; foreign direct investment attracted reached approximately 42 to 45 billion USD; the stock market was upgraded from a frontier market to an emerging market, with a total market capitalization of over 9.6 trillion VND...
Notably, Vietnam's total import and export turnover exceeded US$900 billion, with exports estimated at over US$470 billion, maintaining a trade surplus of over US$22 billion. This is an encouraging result amidst global trade turmoil due to the US's retaliatory tariffs announced in April 2025. Investment flows continued to increase strongly in both state-owned, private, and foreign direct investment (FDI) sectors.
Dr. Nguyen Duc Hien, Deputy Head of the Central Policy and Strategy Committee, commented that this is proof that the economy has proactively and steadily overcome "headwinds" in a year of volatile global economic conditions.
According to economist Le Duy Binh, public investment is one of the key drivers contributing to the positive signs of the economy. Data from the Ministry of Finance shows that, considering the total public investment plan using state budget funds for 2025 as assigned by the Prime Minister and the budget allocations supplemented to localities, the total public investment capital for 2025 will reach over 1 trillion VND.
Typically, the disbursement of public investment capital increases sharply towards the end of the year because contractors need time to complete construction and accumulate sufficient work volume for acceptance and payment. By the end of December 2025, the disbursement of public investment capital reached over 70% of the government-assigned capital plan. This figure continues to be updated weekly to tighten discipline and accelerate disbursement in the final push until the end of January 2026.
The hallmark of public investment in 2025 is the simultaneous commencement and inauguration of many key infrastructure projects, opening up new growth opportunities and expanding aggregate demand, creating more room for economic growth.
In 2025, with socio-economic development results achieving and exceeding 15 out of 15 key targets, including a GDP growth rate of over 8%, the Vietnamese economy has recovered strongly and entered a high growth trajectory.
Nationwide, 564 key projects were started and completed in 2025 with a total investment of over 5.1 million billion VND; of which, state budget investment accounted for over 1 million billion VND (over 25%), and the remaining over 3.8 million billion VND was private capital.
The year 2025 also witnessed a positive recovery for businesses, with over 300,000 new businesses established or resuming operations nationwide, with a total registered capital exceeding 6 trillion VND, representing increases of 30% and 71% respectively compared to the same period in 2024. Thus, to date, there are 1.1 million active businesses nationwide, demonstrating a return of business confidence.
The impetus from "policy opening points"
2026 marks the first year the economy enters a double-digit growth trajectory, sustained continuously from 2026 to 2030. Correspondingly, the National Assembly has set high economic targets: GDP growth of 10% or more, coupled with macroeconomic stability; per capita income of 5,400 to 5,500 USD; average consumer price index increase of approximately 4.5%; and the proportion of manufacturing in GDP at around 24.9%...
Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, Director of the Brand and Competition Strategy Research Institute (BCSI), believes that setting a double-digit growth target demonstrates the strong determination of the National Assembly and the Government to realize the Party's vision of transforming Vietnam into a developing country with modern industry and a high middle income. To achieve double-digit growth from 2026 onwards, it is urgently necessary to establish a new growth model based on science and technology, innovation, and for economic activities to shift from "brown" to "green." This process requires support from implementing institutional reforms, removing "bottlenecks within bottlenecks," increasing investment in infrastructure, training human resources, and establishing a testing mechanism (sandbox) for open economy models, circular economy, and innovation…
In Official Dispatch No. 241/CD-TTg dated December 17, 2025, on implementing tasks to promote economic growth to comprehensively achieve the 2025 socio-economic development plan and create momentum, strength, and a foundation for the implementation of the 2026 plan, the Prime Minister requested ministries, sectors, and localities to urgently review and propose sufficiently strong "policy openings" to transform opportunities into tangible results. This move demonstrates the Government's decisiveness, proactiveness, creativity, and flexibility in directing and managing the economy, creating momentum for 2026.
According to Nguyen Thi Huong, Director of the Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance), to realize the double-digit growth target in 2026, priority should be given to developing and promoting growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring major economic balances, controlling public debt and budget deficits within prescribed limits, considering these as important foundations for economic breakthroughs; and simultaneously focusing on supporting the business community, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. It is also necessary to promote attracting FDI capital linked to high-value chains, shifting the focus from the quantity of capital to technological content, localization rate, and added value; strongly promoting new growth drivers, developing a green economy, digital economy, circular economy, semiconductor industry, artificial intelligence, etc.
In the context of consumer demand not growing as expected, targeted stimulus measures are needed to boost sustainable consumption, encourage a focus on domestically produced goods with high added value, and support service consumption through safe tourism programs and conditional promotions. In addition, institutional reforms and cost reductions should be accelerated, specifically by abolishing unnecessary business conditions and reducing the processing time for administrative procedures related to investment and business establishment by 50%.
According to Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV, starting in 2026, it is necessary to focus on restructuring public investment, prioritizing sectors that create a foundation for a new growth model instead of focusing solely on hard infrastructure; at the same time, reforming the financial market, increasing the proportion of capital supplied to the economy through the stock market channel, and the International Financial Center which started operating at the end of December 2025, thereby contributing to reducing the burden on the banking system.
Amidst a global economic landscape projected to remain challenging and uncertain, Vietnam has maintained high economic growth and macroeconomic stability, creating favorable conditions for the production and business activities of the business community. This serves as a solid foundation for the economy to achieve breakthroughs.
Source: https://baolamdong.vn/diem-tua-de-nen-kinh-te-but-pha-414859.html
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