Is Vietnamese cinema struggling in a situation of "crowded land and a large population"?

Film experts in Vietnam believe the market is saturated, with too many films crowding prime time slots while audience interests are becoming increasingly fragmented.

Supermodel and actress Xuan Lan opens up about being in debt of 30 billion VND after two film projects. (Photo: Provided by the film crew)

In 2025, Vietnamese cinema will have 55 films released in theaters. Just the following year, this number is expected to double to around 70-80 films. The film race is no longer confined to the Lunar New Year holiday, but also extends to occasions such as the Hung Kings' Commemoration Day, April 30th-May 1st, and the upcoming September 2nd, with a significant increase in the number of films released.

But paradoxically, the more the market expands, the more films lose money. Audiences' choices about whether or not to go to the cinema, and what they watch when they do go, are becoming increasingly polarized. The market is entering a crowded phase, and "the most crowded part is in terms of audience attention."

Tired of saturation.

Despite achieving some box office successes worth hundreds of billions of dong, the Vietnamese film market continues to witness a series of disheartening developments.

Recently, producer Hang Trinh admitted failure and apologized to investors after the film "Money Trap" only grossed 2.9 billion VND and had to leave theaters early. Supermodel Xuan Lan revealed her state of despair after losing 30 billion VND on two film projects in 2024 and 2025.

The recent April 30th - May 1st film season was also heavily fragmented. Three out of five films failed to break even. Veteran producer Trinh Hoan (HKFilm) had to express his bewilderment and self-doubt on his personal page when his film "Hero" grossed less than 20 billion VND after 5 days of release.

Thai Hoa failed to guarantee box office success for the film "Hero." (Image from the film)

Images of actress Thanh Thúy rushing to numerous screenings on a cinetour, even when the theaters were sparsely populated, in order to boost the box office for the film "Trùm Sò," directed by her husband, have caused concern among viewers.

Filmmakers selling their homes to fund their cinematic dreams has become commonplace. However, only a select few manage ; the rest struggle to repay debts for years, even decades, suffering reputational damage. This weariness permeates the minds of countless individuals who are making a living from art and their beliefs.

Experts agree that the market is highly volatile. Audiences seem more unpredictable than any elaborate advertising and marketing campaign, because behind every strategy to draw viewers to theaters, there's still a media "gamble" to maintain positive word-of-mouth.

Mr. Nguyen Trong Khoa, M.Sc., RMIT University Vietnam.

Nguyen Trong Khoa, M.A., Head of the Digital Film Production Department at RMIT University Vietnam, affirms that audiences are clearly differentiating not only based on subject matter but also on storytelling nuances and aesthetic tastes across all genres.

However, the challenge is how to ensure that the media coverage for each film accurately reflects its style and actual quality. "When the media, identity, and content are unified, audience differentiation will help each film find its own audience, instead of all following the same mainstream mold," he assessed.

Looking back at the recent peak movie season of April 30th - May 1st, journalist and film expert Nguyen Ngoc (Ngoc Nick M) believes that Vietnamese cinemas are not necessarily "overcrowded" in the sense of an absolutely saturated market, "but rather crowded in prime time slots, crowded in media budgets, and crowded in audience attention."

Film saturation is occurring in many places, even in film capitals like Hollywood.

According to analysis, while Hollywood is saturated with the IP industrialization model (sequels, reboots, live-action films, cinematic universes, constantly recycled old franchises), Vietnam offers formulas that quickly sell tickets, such as folk horror, family comedies, films with big stars, remakes, or films targeting the holiday season.

"However, the difference is that Hollywood lacks original, unique scripts because of its large bureaucracy and fear of risk. Vietnam, on the other hand, often lacks good scripts because project development is rushed, lacking time for testing, lacking a professional screenwriting system, and lacking patience with incomplete drafts," Mr. Nguyen Ngoc pointed out. In other words, according to him, Hollywood is exhausted because it's too industrialized, while Vietnam is exhausted because its industry is not yet fully developed.

There is still room for clever strategy.

In the near future, a distinct genre of films is set to emerge: historical films. Six historical projects have already been announced in 2026 alone.

Historical stories inherently evoke deep emotions and easily draw audiences to theaters due to their national pride and higher ideals compared to many other genres. This is a natural advantage in film promotion and distribution.

However, historical themes, like any other genre, are susceptible to saturation. The biggest challenge is avoiding creating a superficial "trend of historical films."

A series of historical-themed projects inspired by true stories will be announced in the first five months of 2026. (Composite image)

"With the forecast of a continued increase in the number of historical films, it is highly likely that the market in 2027 will follow a similar pattern to 2025," said Master's degree holder Nguyen Trong Khoa, commenting on revenue figures from last year when there were three historical films, but only "Red Rain" truly dominated the market.

"Without serious investment in scriptwriting, production design, and overall quality, audiences could quickly lose interest in historical films. Increasing the number of films by 2027 might only widen the revenue gap, rather than help the market grow together."

In a market that is both fragmented and saturated, what must Vietnamese films do to break through? From a personal perspective, audiences might expect a uniquely original and fresh script to refresh their viewing experience, or they might believe that a particularly clever distribution strategy with elements that encourage widespread word-of-mouth marketing is sufficient.

Film expert Nguyen Ngoc.

However, according to experts, a film needs more than that to go far. According to film expert Nguyen Ngoc, first and foremost, filmmakers and the media need a clear cinematic promise. Audiences must understand, and understand very quickly, why they need to see this film in theaters.

Next is a script that's unique enough but doesn't necessarily have to be "bizarre": Sometimes, all it takes is a very familiar situation presented with a fresh perspective, sufficiently novel, convincing, or charming, along with sensational details to encourage audiences to recommend it to others.

"Vietnamese cinema doesn't lack material, from family, village life, and urban life to religion, youth, migration, war memories, office life, and the struggles of the middle class... The problem is that this material needs to be organized into a story with rhythm, memorable characters, and emotions that go all the way," Mr. Ngoc analyzed.

“Ultimately, it’s about distribution. Vietnamese films in the future need to move away from the mentality of crowding into a few peak seasons, learn to choose niches, understand their competitors, and build a community of viewers before the film hits theaters. The market is vibrant but also very strict. Vietnamese audiences haven’t turned their backs on Vietnamese films; they are simply maturing faster than some producers imagine.”

(Vietnam+)

Source: https://www.vietnamplus.vn/dien-anh-viet-dang-chat-vat-trong-canh-dat-chat-nguoi-dong-post1109367.vnp