Cocoa prices fell 7% due to profit-taking pressure.

At the close of yesterday's trading session, cocoa prices led the decline, losing 7%. Analysts believe the main reason was profit-taking by speculators.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the global raw materials market showed mixed performance in the first trading session after the Christmas holiday (December 26). At closing, the MXV-Index rose 0.91% to 2,194 points. Notably, 5 out of 7 agricultural commodities saw price increases, most notably soybean meal, soybeans, and wheat. Conversely, industrial raw materials prices weakened across the board, with cocoa recording a sharp drop of nearly 7%.

MXV-Index

Soybean market recovers after holiday

Reopening after the Christmas holiday, buying pressure prevailed in the agricultural commodities market. Soybeans and soybean meal stood out, rising 1% and 4.37% respectively. Concerns about drought conditions in Argentina, the fire at the Bunge soybean processing plant in Cairo (USA), and short-selling activity by investment funds supported prices for these commodities in yesterday's trading session.

Agricultural product price list

According to weather forecasts in South America, the drought in Argentina will continue into the new year, with limited rainfall in early January. Meanwhile, Brazil continues to receive abundant rainfall, ensuring favorable conditions for the crop. This raises concerns that the supply of soybean meal in the current crop year will not be as high as previously expected.

Yesterday, a major fire broke out at the Bunge grain processing plant in Cairo. The fire is now under control, but the reopening date remains uncertain. This factor is also contributing to supporting soybean meal prices, indirectly positively impacting soybean prices.

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On the domestic market, as of December 26th, the quoted prices for South American soybean meal delivered to Vietnamese ports remained relatively stable. At Vung Tau port, the quoted price for February 2025 delivery was 10,300 VND/kg, while the March 2025 delivery also fluctuated around 10,300 VND/kg. At Cai Lan port, the quoted price was approximately 150 VND/kg higher than at Vung Tau port.

Wheat prices also rose more than 1% after the holiday due to supply concerns. Temperatures across most of the US are forecast to be higher than normal for the next 10 days, accompanied by heavy rainfall. This could be a cause for concern if the ground is not adequately covered with snow when temperatures drop to below normal levels.

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Cocoa prices fell 7% due to profit-taking pressure.

At the close of yesterday's trading session, industrial raw materials saw price declines across the board, while Robusta coffee and white sugar were closed. Commodities on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE-US) opened late.

Industrial raw material price list

Cocoa prices led the decline, losing 7% in yesterday's session. Analysts believe the main reason is profit-taking by speculators after the Christmas holidays. However, the market remains concerned about supply in the early months of 2025.

Cocoa farmers in Ivory Coast are concerned about their early 2025 crop yields due to the impact of strong dry monsoon winds in key producing regions. The strong Harmattan winds, combined with low rainfall, are drying out cocoa leaves, weakening the trees and impacting yields. The most severely affected areas are Central West Daloa, central Yamoussoukro, and central Bongouanou, where there has been virtually no rain.

According to cocoa exporters in Ivory Coast, from October 1st to December 22nd, cocoa arrivals reached 972,000 tons, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year. However, this increase is due to a sharp decline in production and exports during the 2023-2024 crop year. In fact, compared to normal seasons, the current cocoa arrival volume remains low.

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Coffee prices today, March 23, 2025, saw a slight increase in the market.

Following cocoa, Arabica coffee prices fell 1.2% due to profit-taking pressure and the prospect of oversupply next year. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global coffee supply and demand for the 2024-2025 crop year will have a surplus of 6.78 million 60kg bags, a 21.07% increase from the June forecast and the largest surplus in four years. The USDA also estimates global coffee trade will have a surplus of 8.26 million bags in the 2024-2025 crop year, 2.2 times higher than the previous forecast but 1.29 million bags lower than the 2023-2024 crop year. Exports are projected at 144.9 million bags and imports at 136.6 million bags.

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Source: https://congthuong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-hom-nay-2712-gia-ca-cao-giam-7-do-ap-luc-chot-loi-366464.html