Coffee prices set new record highs.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), industrial raw materials have seen price increases across the board, with coffee experiencing a strong surge.

Arabica coffee prices rose 6.64% to $6,660 per ton, setting a new 13.5-year high, while Robusta coffee prices also increased 4.4% to nearly $5,000 per ton. This marks the third consecutive week of price increases for both commodities, driven primarily by supply concerns in Brazil and Vietnam.

In Brazil, although rainfall in Minas Gerais, the country's largest coffee-growing region, was 27% above historical average last week, the market remains concerned about soil moisture shortages for the 2025-2026 crop. According to Barchart, rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below average since April, impacting the crucial flowering stage and the prospects of the Arabica coffee crop.

Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) base in Brazil lowered its forecast for the 2024-2025 coffee crop to 66.4 million 60-kg bags, a decrease of 3.5 million bags compared to the previous forecast. The main reason for this decline is the drop in Arabica coffee production due to harsh weather conditions during the flowering and fruit development stages.

At the same time, the USDA also forecasts that exports for the 2024-2025 crop year will decrease by 5% compared to previous predictions, to 44.25 million bags, 2.5 million bags lower than the previous crop year. Notably, ending stocks for the 2024-2025 crop year are projected to decrease sharply by 65% ​​compared to the previous report, to 1.24 million bags, while ending stocks for the 2023-2024 crop year have also been adjusted from 2.885 million bags down to 1.685 million bags.

In Vietnam, the market is facing several supply challenges. Besides concerns about a potential La Nina phenomenon at the end of the year affecting the harvest, the amount of coffee available at the start of the 2024 main harvest is also low. According to Reuters, traders in Vietnam say demand is increasing while supply remains limited. Unlike previous seasons, farmers this year are not in a hurry to sell their coffee due to stable finances thanks to revenue from the earlier sales of durian and pepper.

The low supply situation is also reflected in the export figures from the General Department of Customs. Accordingly, the amount of coffee exported in the first half of November reached only 20,933 tons, a decrease of 45% compared to the same period in 2023 and a decrease of 3% compared to the first 15 days of October 2024. This is contrary to the usual pattern where export volume in November typically increases as farmers enter the main harvest season.

In the domestic market, as of 11:30 AM today (November 25th), the price of coffee in Vietnam unexpectedly surged, averaging a sharp increase of 1,000 VND/kg, causing prices to fluctuate between 118,800 and 120,000 VND/kg. The average purchase price of coffee in the Central Highlands provinces is 120,000 VND/kg.

Lam Dong province still has the lowest coffee purchase price in the Central Highlands region. Compared to yesterday's closing price, the price of coffee in this area stands at 118,800 VND/kg, although it has increased by 800 VND/kg.

Similarly, coffee purchasing prices in Gia Lai province today ranked second on the list with an increase of 1,000 VND, listed at 119,900 VND/kg.

Notably, Dak Lak and Dak Nong have jointly held the top position as the provinces and cities with the highest coffee purchasing prices nationwide for several days, simultaneously increasing by 1,000 VND/kg to reach 120,000 VND/kg.

Domestic coffee prices extended their upward trend from the beginning of this week. To date, domestic coffee prices have risen by more than 10,000 VND/kg, reaching a peak of 120,000 VND/kg.

According to PV/VTV

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/gia-ca-phe-thiet-lap-muc-dinh-moi/20241125073140322