On the morning of March 13th, the State Bank of Vietnam announced the central exchange rate at 25,065 VND/USD, an increase of 4 VND compared to the previous day and the third consecutive day of increase.
At commercial banks such as Vietcombank, BIDV, Agribank , Eximbank, and Sacombank, the USD exchange rate is commonly quoted at 26,078 VND/USD for buying and 26,318 VND/USD for selling, both increasing by 4 VND per USD compared to yesterday. This also marks the third consecutive day that the USD exchange rate has risen in the banking system.
In the free market, the USD price continues to remain above 27,000 VND. Some foreign exchange bureaus and gold shops are trading around 27,150-27,190 VND/USD (buying - selling).
Since the beginning of March, the USD/VND exchange rate has tended to rise again amidst a strengthening US dollar in the international market and rising crude oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East. The USD Index (DXY) is currently trading around 99.78 points, up from the previous session and about 3.6% higher than at the beginning of March.
According to experts, the USD/VND exchange rate is under pressure from both external and domestic factors. The global appreciation of the US dollar, along with rising oil prices, could increase inflationary pressure, thereby impacting the exchange rate.
UOB experts predict the USD/VND exchange rate will cool down to 26,100 VND/USD by the beginning of next year.
Speaking at the "Investment Outlook 2026" event organized by UOB Vietnam on the evening of March 12th, Mr. Suan Teck Kin, Director of Global Market and Economic Research at UOB Singapore, stated that Vietnam's inflation in January 2026 was 2.53%, lower than the forecast of 3.1%.
According to him, in the context of rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions, coupled with positive domestic growth prospects and downward pressure on the VND, the State Bank of Vietnam is likely to maintain the refinancing interest rate at 4.5%.
UOB's base scenario assumes Brent crude oil prices could rise to around $90/barrel in Q2 2026 before falling to around $80/barrel by the end of the year. In that case, the impact on inflation and Vietnam's economic growth would be assessed as moderate.
"The USD/VND exchange rate is rising in line with the general trend of the international market. There is pressure on the VND, but it will not be too significant. In the medium term, the outlook for the VND remains stable thanks to a positive macroeconomic foundation with a projected GDP growth of around 7.5% in 2026, sustained favorable FDI inflows, and the possibility of Vietnam being upgraded to emerging market status in September 2026," - Mr. Suan Teck Kin commented.
UOB forecasts the USD/VND exchange rate could be at 26,400 VND in Q2, 26,200 VND in Q3, and gradually decline to around 26,100 VND/USD in Q1/2027.
Earlier, at the regular government press conference, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Pham Thanh Ha also stated that tensions in the Middle East have caused a sharp increase in oil prices, putting pressure on global inflation and the currency market.
According to Mr. Ha, in the coming period, the State Bank of Vietnam will continue to manage the exchange rate flexibly, coordinating monetary policy tools to stabilize the market and ensure the smooth operation of the foreign exchange market.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/gia-usd-tu-do-co-dien-bien-moi-196260313111810458.htm
Comment (0)