Will gold prices rise again this week?

The precious metals market is constantly being impacted by persistent inflation risks and safe-haven demand amidst the Middle East conflict and central bank policy decisions.

Gold price movements last week

Gold prices closed the week weaker after five days of sharp fluctuations, with selling pressure from the beginning of the week before recovering towards the end.

Spot gold prices started the week at $4,685.50 per ounce, then quickly rose to a weekly high of nearly $4,730 per ounce. However, the precious metal came under considerable pressure in the first two trading sessions of the week, falling to $4,560 per ounce on Tuesday. The main reasons were the continuously rising oil prices and a stronger USD, pushing up US bond yields and reinforcing expectations that high interest rates will be maintained for a longer period.

The rise in crude oil prices has fueled inflation concerns, making gold – a non-yielding asset – less attractive and leading to continuous selling pressure throughout the week.

By Wednesday morning, gold prices hit a weekly low near $4,510 per ounce. After recovering to $4,560 per ounce, selling pressure returned in the afternoon session as the Fed issued its latest policy signals, highlighting internal divergence and diminishing expectations of short-term interest rate cuts.

The cautious, hawkish tone continued to support the USD, keeping gold prices pegged near their weekly lows as investors adjusted their expectations regarding the monetary policy trajectory.

Gold prices gradually found support towards the end of the week. On Thursday, prices surged to nearly $4,650 per ounce. After a final dip to support around $4,560 per ounce on Friday morning, the precious metal recorded a slight recovery for the remainder of the day, as the market processed signals from the Fed and continued to monitor geopolitical risks amidst low liquidity.

The weekend recovery was not enough to help gold reverse its trend. The precious metal still recorded its second consecutive weekly decline, losing nearly 2%, as expectations of high interest rates and persistently high energy prices continued to put pressure on the market.

Gold price forecast for this week

The latest Kitco News survey reveals a clear divergence among both Wall Street and individual investors, with about half predicting that gold prices could rebound next week, while nearly a third believe the precious metal will continue to decline.

Sixteen experts participated in the survey, with Wall Street sentiment shifting to a more positive tone amid optimistic expectations regarding the Iran conflict and a return to risk-on sentiment.

Eight experts, or 50%, predict that gold prices will rise this week. Meanwhile, five experts, or 31%, forecast a price decrease. The remaining three experts believe the market may remain flat.

Meanwhile, an online poll of 79 individual investors yielded similar results to professional analysts. 36 retail investors, or 46%, expected gold prices to rise, while 24 (30%) predicted a decline. The remaining 19 investors, or 24%, believed gold prices would fluctuate within a narrow range.

Key economic data to watch this week

After a week of economic news dominated by central banks, the market enters the new week with a series of key data from the US, with the highlight being the April jobs report from the world's largest economy.

On Tuesday morning, the ISM Services PMI will be released, with traders watching to see if the services sector shows signs of a similar slowdown to the manufacturing sector, following the less-than-positive data released last Friday.

In addition, the market is also paying attention to the US JOLTS job creation data and new home sales figures for February and March.

On Wednesday, the ADP Employment report – an early indicator of the US labor market – will be released, providing insights into non-agricultural employment trends. Following that, the weekly US jobless claims data released on Thursday morning will offer further signals about the health of the labor market.

The week's data roll concludes Friday morning with the US April jobs report, before the University of Michigan releases its preliminary May consumer confidence index – a key measure reflecting American consumer sentiment toward the economic outlook.

Quang Trung

Source: https://baoninhbinh.org.vn/gia-vang-tuan-nay-se-tang-tro-lai-260504055810685.html