Domestic gold prices continue to fluctuate unpredictably, in line with world gold prices but constantly reversing with a small amplitude. Notably, the gap between domestic and international gold prices has widened again after a short period of narrowing thanks to the Government's drastic direction.
If on January 13, 2025, the world gold price closed at around 2,663.61 USD/oz; the domestic gold price was recorded at around 87 million VND/tael, then on July 13, the world gold price stood at 3,355.95 USD/oz (~296 million VND/oz). Domestic SJC gold bars traded at around 121.5 million VND, 24K gold rings at around 117.5 million VND/tael. The current difference remains at ~125 million VND/tael between domestic and foreign prices.
On the positive side, the domestic supply of SJC gold has improved thanks to the State Bank increasing distribution through the commercial banking system and handling price manipulation. At the same time, people's confidence in gold rings has increased, helping to narrow the gap between gold types of the same quality.
Globally, gold prices are affected by: Interest rate policies and the US dollar; geopolitical situations (war, regional instability); gold purchases by Central Banks and investment funds; global economic developments and especially US tax agreements.
According to the World Gold Council, there have been more than 200,000 tonnes of gold mined in history. Recycled gold supply accounts for nearly 30%, far exceeding the growth from mining. Gold is still considered a safe haven asset, especially in times of stagnant inflation and financial instability. The rise in gold prices also pulls up the prices of precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium. The outlook for gold prices depends on interest rates, geopolitics, and economic recovery.
Domestic gold prices are forecast to remain high or increase slightly, depending on fiscal and monetary policies, savings interest rates, and the attractiveness of the stock and real estate markets. The connection between domestic and foreign gold markets, as well as the level of transparency and fair competition among gold brands, also affect price trends.
Although many international organizations forecast that gold could exceed 3,700 - 3,800 USD/ounce by the end of the year, the strong price increase momentum has begun to slow down, especially in the context of expectations for geopolitical stability and cash flow shifting to other channels such as US stocks, silver, and platinum.
The share of global USD reserves continues to decline, but no currency is strong enough to replace the USD in the short term. Gold is still a safe investment channel, but “surfing” requires knowledge and risk control. Small investors should not borrow money to speculate on trends, avoiding “following the crowd” leading to great losses.
Source: https://baonghean.vn/gia-vang-van-tang-deu-trong-6-thang-dau-nam-10302227.html
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