Israel faces a difficult choice

The Israeli military announced yesterday (April 17) that it had conducted a series of airstrikes against more than 40 targets in the Gaza Strip within 24 hours, according to The Times of Israel . At the same time, Israeli aircraft also attacked and killed two commanders of Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. These actions took place while the Israeli military was preparing a plan to respond to Iran and send infantry into the Rafah area in the southern Gaza Strip to destroy Hamas forces.

Risks for Israel

Despite calls for restraint from Western allies, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is determined to carry out the plan on both fronts, although he has not announced a specific time. AFP quoted regional experts yesterday as saying that the Israeli military cannot carry out two such operations at the same time. Mr. John Erath, policy director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation (USA), said that Israeli leaders could consider options that do not escalate tensions with Iran and are a way out of the crisis.

Flashpoints: Israel Strikes Iran; Ukrainian President Frustrated with US

If Israel does decide to retaliate against Iran, it will raise fears of a multi-front war and is expected to further isolate Tel Aviv. Although the Israeli military has a huge advantage over its regional rivals, to attack Iran, Tel Aviv would need permission from Gulf states to use its airspace, which is not guaranteed. In addition, a direct conflict would increase pressure on the Israeli military, distract it from the conflict in Gaza and affect the economy .

Israeli tanks operate near Gaza on April 16.

Responding to The Guardian on April 16, Iran's Charge d'Affaires in the UK Seyed Mehdi Hosseini Matin accused Israel of trying to drag the West into a full-scale war in the Middle East with immeasurable consequences. He affirmed that Tehran had achieved its goal in attacking Israel and warned that it would respond immediately and strongly if Tel Aviv made a mistake in retaliating.

Western appeasement

The United States and the European Union (EU) yesterday suggested they would increase sanctions on Iran over the attack on Israel early on April 14. White House officials said the US would launch new sanctions targeting Iran's missile and drone programs, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Defense Ministry, as well as its oil export capacity. EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Josep Borrell said the alliance was working on stronger measures against the supply of weapons from Iran to other forces.

In a phone call on April 16, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also sought to appease his Israeli counterpart to avoid escalating tensions. In the call, Mr. Sunak said that escalation only increased insecurity in the Middle East and stressed that this was the time for "calm heads." British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Jerusalem yesterday. After the meeting, Mr. Cameron said that Israel had clearly decided to respond, but he hoped Tel Aviv would act in a way that was "as least escalatory as possible."

What does Iran gain from its attack on Israel?

Security Council votes on Palestine's UN membership

AFP reported yesterday that the UN Security Council will vote on Palestine's official membership at the UN on April 18. The UN General Assembly can admit new members with a two-thirds majority, but that only happens after the Security Council unanimously recommends them.

In a statement on April 16, the Arab Group affirmed its firm support for the Palestinian effort, stressing that full membership at the UN is an important step towards a just and lasting solution to the Palestinian issue. The United States, which has long vetoed the UNSC recommendation, said the establishment of an independent Palestinian state should take place through direct negotiations between the parties rather than at the UN. According to Reuters, US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on April 17 that a UNSC resolution proposing full membership for Palestine would not help bring about a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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