China's rejection of a defense ministerial meeting with the US on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue may reflect Beijing's concerns about Washington's presence in the region.
When the US RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft on May 26 operated in international airspace over the East Sea, China's J-5 fighter jet flew at a distance of more than 16 m, causing an area of air turbulence. according to the US military Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). This is the latest tense encounter between the two military powers, raising concerns about the risk of escalation.
During the opening dinner of the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore on the evening of June 2, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin walked up to Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu and shook hands and had a brief exchange, but The two are not planning to hold a formal meeting.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin shakes hands and exchanges with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu at the opening party of the Shangri-La Dialogue 2023 in Singapore, the night of June 2. Video: Twitter/Yaroslav Trofimov
U.S. officials said China had flatly rejected an offer of a meeting, while Austin last week warned that a misunderstanding "could get out of control" because of the two countries' militaries not communicating.
The denial of channels of communication with Washington reflects Beijing's anxiety about the US military presence in the region, as well as its determination to make the US feel the risks of such activities, according to key analysts. rule and military.
At a press conference on May 31, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said that the US was at fault in the encounter between the RC-5 reconnaissance plane and the J-135 fighter jet.
"The fact that the US regularly sends warships and aircraft to monitor close range to China has seriously damaged our national security," Mao said. "The US's dangerous and provocative activities are the cause of security problems at sea."
Wang Yiwei, a professor of international studies at Renmin University of China in Beijing, said that the country had exchanged and negotiated with the US after the collision between the two countries' planes off Hainan Island in 2001. The collision resulted in the death of the Chinese fighter pilot, the entire crew on the American reconnaissance plane was arrested during an emergency landing on Hainan Island, and then returned to Washington.
"If China accepts dialogue and cooperation with the US, Washington can then continue to play this dangerous game," Professor Wang said. State media and Chinese academics have also frequently suggested that the risk of a collision is increased due to "increasingly frequent US close-in spying on China".
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (left) and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu. Image: AP
China's cold approach to its relationship with the US military stands apart from its willingness to cooperate on other issues. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao discussed trade and investment during their first cabinet-level meeting in Washington since President Joe Biden took office.
Earlier, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi met in Vienna to negotiate on restoring the two countries' slumping relations.
During Mr. Biden's tenure, the US is increasingly interested in the Indo-Pacific region. Washington has repeatedly criticized Beijing for taking drastic actions in the region, including the South China Sea, when China pushed for illegal claims in this sea, despite the international court's ruling.
Washington has recently stepped up its surveillance and freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea. The United States also reached an agreement to expand access to bases in allies such as the Philippines and Australia.
China's reluctance to engage in defense dialogue with the United States demonstrates Beijing's confusion over Washington's results in its efforts to increase its presence in Asia, according to Michael Green, executive director of the Center for American Studies. at the University of Sydney.
Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, also said that China is feeling insecure about US influence in the region.
“I think China sees more economic leverage, so it is willing to engage in high-level talks. But in terms of security, you can see limitations because they lack such leverage,” he said.
According to expert Green, encounters like the J-16 fighter jet with the RC-135 aircraft over the South China Sea last week are part of China's calculation to erode the ability of the US and its allies to operate in the South China Sea. area.
“The PLA seems to want to put the US military in a state of tension when operating in the region, even though this poses great risks. I think China thinks they can handle that risk better than the US," he said.
To reduce the risk of miscalculation, Washington has sought to promote more reliable channels of communication between the militaries of the two countries in the event of a crisis, including hotlines like the one the United States maintained with the Soviet Union during the Soviet era. Cold War. However, China has rejected those efforts.
“Their views on these channels of communication are not the same as those of the Russians and Soviets of the past. They see them as more political than practical,” said Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official in charge of China affairs and now a fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. , speak.
China has a similar position with high-level meetings, not seeing them as an effective way to negotiate, according to Thompson.
A Chinese fighter jet flies over the top of a US RC-135 reconnaissance plane. Video: ABC News
The PLA says it values communication with its American partners, but accuses Washington of undermining trust between the two sides. China criticized the sanctions Washington imposed on Li Shangfu in 2018, when he was in charge of the weapons procurement department of the Chinese military and signed a contract to buy Su-35 fighters and S-missiles. 400 from Russia.
US President Joe Biden at the G7 summit in Japan last month said he considered lifting that sanctions in order to facilitate a meeting of the two countries' defense ministers, but ultimately kept it in place. .
“The US is the party responsible for the difficulties in the dialogue efforts of the two militaries. On the one hand, the United States claims to want to strengthen communication, but on the other hand, it ignores China's concerns and creates obstacles that seriously undermine trust between the two militaries," a spokesman for China's Ministry of National Defense said. Quoc Dam Khac Phi said on May 31.
Thanh Tam (Follow WSJ)
