Banks have more room for credit growth.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has just issued Circular 08/2026/TT-NHNN amending regulations on safety ratios in the operations of credit institutions. Accordingly, from May 15, 2026, banks are allowed to include 20% of time deposits from the State Treasury in their mobilized capital when determining the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR), instead of completely eliminating it as in the previous roadmap.

Analysts believe this move will help support liquidity and open up more credit space for the banking system, given that system-wide capital mobilization is still lagging behind credit growth. According to Ms. Pham Thi Thanh Tung, Deputy Director of the Department of Credit for Economic Sectors, State Bank of Vietnam, as of April 28, 2026, total system credit outstanding reached over VND 19.4 million billion, an increase of 4.42% compared to the end of 2025 and an increase of 18.26% compared to the same period in 2025. Meanwhile, capital mobilization is increasing very slowly, resulting in a gap of approximately VND 2 million billion between capital mobilization and credit. This mismatch between credit growth and deposit mobilization continues to widen the gap between total credit and deposits.

Allowing the inclusion of 20% of the State Treasury's time deposits in the deposit component when calculating the LDR ratio will significantly increase the lending capacity of state-owned banks.

Besides the disparity between credit growth and deposit mobilization, liquidity pressure also stems from the roadmap outlined in Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN (amended and supplemented by Circular 26/2022/TT-NHNN), which stipulates that, from 2026, all time deposits of the State Treasury will no longer be included in the total deposit component when calculating the LDR (loan-to-deposit ratio). Meanwhile, State Treasury deposits have long been considered a crucial source of liquidity support for the banking system, with their size at times reaching over half a trillion VND.

This pressure is more evident in the group of state-owned commercial banks – which hold the majority of outstanding loans and treasury deposits. According to the State Bank of Vietnam, by the end of March 2026, the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of Vietcombank, VietinBank, BIDV, and Agribank were 84.54%, 83.48%, 82.94%, and 83.28% respectively, approaching the maximum threshold of 85%. To maintain these safety ratios, many banks have had to increase capital mobilization from the public, thereby creating further pressure on deposit interest rates in recent times.

Assessing the impact of Circular 08, MBS believes that allowing the inclusion of 20% of the State Treasury's time deposits in the deposit component when calculating the Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) will significantly increase the lending capacity of state-owned banks while reducing short-term liquidity pressure. SSI Research also believes that state-owned commercial banks will benefit more significantly due to their holding of the majority of State Treasury deposits. According to SSI Research, the impact at the system-wide level is not too large, equivalent to about 0.6% of outstanding credit, but for state-owned banks, the support could be equivalent to about 1.4-2% of outstanding credit.

Data from the Q1/2026 financial report shows that the State Treasury's deposit balance at Vietcombank, BIDV , and VietinBank reached VND 563,036 billion, an increase of nearly 39% compared to the end of 2025.

At Vietcombank, total deposits from the State Treasury at the end of Q1/2026 reached VND 189,159 billion, an increase of 39% compared to the beginning of the year. Looking at the structure of demand deposits in VND and foreign currency, they were VND 2,656 billion and VND 1,252 billion respectively; meanwhile, time deposits in VND amounted to VND 185,250 billion. According to Circular 08/2026/TT-NHNN, the size of time deposits recorded in Vietcombank's LDR (Loan-to-Deposit Ratio) is approximately VND 37,050 billion.

Similarly, BIDV recorded a balance of approximately VND 188,627 billion in deposits with the State Treasury, also a 39% increase compared to the beginning of the year. After deducting VND 3,377 billion in demand deposits, BIDV's time deposits remained at VND 185,250 billion, corresponding to an additional value of VND 37,050 billion added to the LDR denominator...

It can be seen that allowing 20% ​​of the State Treasury's time deposits to be included in the capital mobilization component will help broaden the denominator of the LDR, thereby creating more room for banks with high loan-to-deposit ratios to maintain credit growth while still ensuring safety limits.

Besides contributing to reducing liquidity pressure, adjusting the LDR calculation method is also expected to support the stabilization of deposit interest rates in the coming period. According to ACBS, when the pressure to balance capital sources is reduced, banks will have more room to lower medium and long-term deposit interest rates. At the same time, unlocking capital at large banks is also expected to support the ability to provide credit for key projects and production and business activities of the economy.

However, VPBankS also noted that the gap between credit growth and deposit mobilization is still putting some pressure on system liquidity, especially at banks with LDR ratios close to the regulatory threshold. This indicates that balancing capital sources and ensuring safety ratios will likely continue to be a key issue to monitor in the coming period.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/ngan-hang-them-du-dia-tang-truong-tin-dung-182147.html