The world faces the problem of a shortage of children.

The continuously declining birth rates in many parts of the world are profoundly altering demographic structures and global economic prospects.

A baby is born in Hong Kong (China). Photo: Karma Lo

From "population explosion" to worries about a shortage of children.

According to Visual Capitalist , the global fertility rate was nearly 5 children per woman in the 1960s, but by 2024 it had fallen to approximately 2.2 children per woman. This is very close to the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, the rate needed for a country to maintain a stable population size across generations without relying on immigration. Approximately 71% of the world's population now lives in countries with fertility rates below the replacement level. This reflects that declining birth rates are no longer a localized phenomenon in developed countries but are gradually becoming a global trend.

This change is happening quietly but is powerful enough to reshape the socio -economic future of many countries. Currently, six out of the ten most populous countries in the world have birth rates below replacement level. India, the world's most populous country, maintains a rate of approximately 1.94 children per woman, while China has seen it drop to just 1.02 children per woman. Similar situations are also occurring in many other major economies such as the US, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia.

Meanwhile, the demographic picture in sub-Saharan Africa is quite different. Countries like Nigeria, Chad, and Somalia maintain very high fertility rates, commonly more than four children per woman. This means that much of the world's population growth over the next decade is likely to be concentrated in Africa and parts of South Asia.

The sharp divergence between regions indicates that the world is entering an unprecedented demographic transition, simultaneously posing two distinct development challenges. For developed countries, the top priority is maintaining the workforce, balancing the social security system, and adapting to an aging society. Meanwhile, countries with young populations face the opportunity to capitalize on the "demographic dividend," while also needing to invest heavily in education , employment, and infrastructure to meet the needs of a large younger generation.

Demographic changes are not only reflected in birth rates or the rate of population aging, but more profoundly, they are transforming the structure of the family, the fundamental "cell" of modern society. In many developed countries, single-person households are rapidly increasing and gradually becoming the common model. According to The Korea Times , South Korea currently has more than 8 million single-person households, accounting for 36% of the total number of households in the country.

Alongside this, the trend of "not having children as a matter of choice" is also seen as a personal decision. Behind this decision lies not simply a change in lifestyle, but also reflects the cautious mindset of young people in the face of uncertainties regarding employment, housing, and the burden of raising children.

From another perspective, an increasing number of young people in developed countries are returning to live with their parents due to the inability to afford the high cost of housing and living expenses. Sociologists call this phenomenon the "boomerang generation." According to a survey by Thrivent Financial, 46% of American parents with children aged 18-35 have to return to live with their families, with rising housing costs being the primary reason.

Diverse solutions for promoting reproduction.

Faced with declining birth rates, many countries are racing to find solutions to the population problem with different approaches. According to Geographical , Hungary is pursuing an aggressive pro-natalist strategy through financial incentives, lifetime income tax exemptions for mothers with two or more children, loan support, and car subsidies for large families.

In Italy, Europe's oldest country, full-time working mothers with three or more children are exempt from social security contributions, while maternity leave benefits are also increased. A "birth bonus" program provides a tax-free grant of €1,000 per newborn.

South Korea, a country with one of the lowest birth rates in the world, has spent approximately $270 billion over the past 16 years to encourage childbirth. According to Newsweek, the "6+6 parental leave" policy, effective from 2025, allows fathers to receive almost full pay if they take at least six months of leave, making South Korea one of the most generous countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) regarding this policy.

It is clear that the current population issue is no longer simply a matter of "large" or "small," but reflects each nation's ability to adapt to the profound changes of modern society. A society can only achieve sustainable development when it creates a stable living environment, a suitable social security system, and favorable conditions for families to confidently have children, raise the next generation, and contribute to the long-term future of the country.

Source: https://baodanang.vn/the-gioi-truoc-bai-toan-thieu-tre-em-3338060.html