According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange MXV, the tug-of-war sentiment continued in the world raw material market last week (July 7-13). Notably, the metal and agricultural product markets. While the metal group led the upward momentum for the entire market, on the contrary, the agricultural product group closed in the red.
In the metal market, the last trading week ended with a mix of green and red on the metal price list. At the close of trading on Friday, COMEX copper prices recorded a weekly increase of nearly 11%, reaching 12,356 USD/ton. Meanwhile, LME copper prices lost more than 2%, falling to 9,661 USD/ton.
According to MXV, since late February of this year, after US President Donald Trump directed the Department of Commerce to open an investigation into copper imports for national security reasons, a wave of hoarding has occurred strongly in the US. COMEX copper prices have set many increasing chains and record highs. Most recently, on July 9, Mr. Trump suddenly announced that he would impose a 50% tax on all imported copper from August 1, making copper prices even more expensive.
The United States imports nearly half of the copper — a metal widely used in machinery, electronics, household goods, and construction — that it consumes.
Earlier on Tuesday (July 8), copper prices in the US increased by 13%, marking the strongest increase since 1989, closing at a record of 12,445 USD/ton. Meanwhile, copper prices on the LME in London increased by only 0.3%.
The difference between the price of copper on the COMEX floor and the price of copper on the LME in the trading session on Friday (July 11) was up to 26.7%, equivalent to more than 2,600 USD/ton.
By August this year, when the US's 50% tariff on copper takes effect, US consumers could be paying $15,000 a tonne for copper, while the rest of the world will pay $10,000 a tonne, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
On the other hand, copper demand in the US is still under pressure from the high interest rate environment and the continuous contraction of production activities since March. The US Federal Reserve (FED) has maintained high interest rates in the range of 4.25 - 4.5% since December 2024, causing the USD to strengthen, copper to become more expensive for foreign investors, which has restrained demand, thereby putting pressure on prices. In addition, last June, the US manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49 points, continuing to record the fourth consecutive month of decline, reflecting the prolonged contraction of domestic industrial production activities. This contributed to hindering the increase in copper prices.
On the Vietnamese side, according to data from the International Trade Center (ITC), in 2024, our country only exported about 14.7 tons of scrap copper and 42.8 tons of refined copper to the US. This export volume accounts for a very small proportion of Vietnam's total copper export turnover, showing that the level of dependence on the US market is insignificant. Therefore, the high tax rate that the US has just announced is unlikely to significantly affect Vietnam's copper export activities in the near future.
For the agricultural products group, the last trading week witnessed overwhelming selling pressure in the agricultural products market when all 7 items in the group weakened simultaneously. Of which, corn prices decreased by 5.7% compared to the end of last week to 155.9 USD/ton.
According to MXV, the prospect of abundant supply while the impacts from tariff policies have caused market demand to remain uncertain has caused prices of this commodity to drop sharply last week.
Accordingly, the progress of harvesting the second corn crop - Brazil's main corn crop - is being strongly promoted in the first days of July. According to data from AgRural, as of July 3, Brazil has completed harvesting 28% of the second corn crop area, up 10% compared to the previous week. Brazil's second corn crop output is forecast by many organizations to reach a record level, ranging from 131 to 133 million tons depending on the assessment unit. It is expected that Brazil's second corn supply will begin to be brought to the market from September.
In Argentina, corn harvest is also accelerating. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 70.4% of the 2024-25 corn crop has been completed. Argentina is currently the world's third-largest corn exporter, with an expected output of 49 million tons this season. Notably, the Argentine Major Agricultural Association (SRA) said that farmers in the country are shifting their priority to corn instead of soybeans for the 2025-2026 crop year. The main reason is the higher soybean export tax, lower prices and profit margins compared to corn. Currently, corn export tax in Argentina is 12%, while soybeans are taxed up to 33%.
The USDA Crop Progress Report also shows that this year's corn crop in the US is in the best condition since 2018. Specifically, 74% of the corn area is rated as good to excellent. This year's corn area reached 38.5 million hectares, the highest in the past decade. USDA forecasts this year's corn production will reach 401.32 million tons.
The abundant corn supply is also reflected in active export activities. In the week ending July 3, U.S. corn exports reached 1.49 million tons, up 7.97% from the previous week and 45.6% higher than the same period last year, mainly to markets such as Mexico, Japan and South Korea.
Meanwhile, China - the world's largest corn importer - is likely to reduce its imports in the coming crop year as it has just had a bumper harvest. According to a report from the USDA, China's corn output is expected to reach 296 million tons in the 2025-2026 crop year, a slight increase of about 0.4% compared to the 2024-2025 crop year.
Source: https://baolamdong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-14-7-thi-truong-nong-san-chim-sau-trong-sac-do-382250.html
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