Finding the drivers for Vietnam's double-digit growth.

To achieve its goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045, Vietnam's economic growth rate must consistently reach double digits in the following years.

Aiming to become a high-income country by 2045

At the National Conference on the Implementation and Review of Resolution 18-NQ/TW, held at the end of 2024, General Secretary To Lam emphasized the need to innovate thinking, make breakthroughs, and surpass oneself in order to accelerate economic growth.

In particular, to achieve the goal of becoming a high-middle-income country for its people by 2030 and a high-income country by 2045, Vietnam's economic growth rate must consistently reach double digits in the following years.

Exports are one of the drivers of growth in the coming period. (Illustrative image)

"This is a very difficult problem that we have to solve." - General Secretary To Lam acknowledged and stated that, to solve this "problem," the Central Committee of the Party, the Government, and the National Assembly are focusing on addressing "bottlenecks" and creating fundamental elements for the country to "take off," especially issues related to infrastructure such as transportation systems, energy infrastructure, human resources, physical facilities, institutional reform, and administrative procedures...

Meanwhile, at the regular government meeting in December 2024, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh also requested that ministries, sectors, and localities make efforts to achieve the goal. growth Over 7% in 2024 and approximately 8% in 2025. This will create momentum and strength for Vietnam to achieve double-digit growth in the 2026-2030 period, fulfilling strategic goals by 2030 (the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Party) and 2045 (the 100th anniversary of the founding of the nation).

To achieve the set goals, the Prime Minister stated: The context and tasks require members of the Government, ministers, heads of agencies, and leaders at all levels, sectors, and localities to have innovative and breakthrough thinking with higher determination, greater effort, more decisive action, a more focused and targeted approach, and timely, flexible, and effective implementation with the spirit of "daring to think, daring to act, daring to innovate for the common good"; "what is said must be done, what is committed must be fulfilled; what is done must be effective"...

Speaking to reporters, Dr. Luong Van Khoi, Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management Research (Ministry of Planning and Investment), acknowledged that achieving double-digit growth in the coming years is an extremely difficult "problem" for Vietnam, especially in the context of unpredictable developments in the global economy and politics. Meanwhile, Vietnam is a highly open economy, susceptible to rapid and strong impacts from external events.

However, despite the difficulties and challenges, Vietnam will have many opportunities to achieve double-digit growth in the coming period if it knows how to utilize and capitalize on existing advantages and create new ones, thereby creating momentum for rapid and sustainable growth.

A favorable investment and business environment will create good opportunities for businesses to develop. (Illustrative image)

Double-digit growth momentum

Understanding the drivers of growth economy Regarding Vietnam's economic outlook for 2025 and the target of double-digit growth in the coming years, Dr. Luong Van Khoi stated: In 2025, Vietnam's inflation is projected to remain under control. Furthermore, all three economic sectors—industry and construction; agriculture, forestry, and fisheries; and tourism and services—show signs of better growth than in 2024. In addition, the living standards of the population are improving, and the number of international tourists to Vietnam continues to grow well. These are signals that will help boost the domestic market and contribute to GDP growth.

Furthermore, exports remain a "bright spot" in Vietnam's economic picture; in 2024, Vietnam's import and export turnover is expected to exceed 800 billion USD.

It is projected that by 2025, global demand for Vietnamese goods will continue to increase strongly. Vietnam is also an economy with deep integration into the international economy, having signed 16 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), including new generation FTAs such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). If these FTAs are fully exploited, Vietnamese businesses will have the opportunity to penetrate larger global markets, opening up export opportunities for Vietnam.

Another driving force, according to Dr. Luong Van Khoi, that will positively impact Vietnam's double-digit economic growth target in the coming period is the continued strong prospect of attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). Although global FDI flows are showing signs of slowing down, FDI into Vietnam has continued to increase in recent years.

According to data from the Ministry of Planning and Investment, in 2023, Vietnam attracted over $39 billion in FDI, and in 2024, the FDI flow is expected to reach approximately $39-40 billion, equivalent to 2023. Vietnam is currently considered a bright spot for global corporations, with the presence of many leading technology companies such as Samsung, LG, NVIDIA, etc.

Besides the aforementioned factors, economic experts believe that Vietnam's socio-economic infrastructure is increasingly improving, especially the extension and expansion of expressways to many localities, enhancing inter-regional connectivity. Furthermore, the commissioning of the 500kV high-voltage power line (circuit 3) ensures energy stability between economic regions, particularly during the dry season. In addition, several newly enacted policies, such as the Land Law, Housing Law, Real Estate Business Law, and Bidding Law, help to improve the investment and business environment towards greater transparency and convenience. This will create new momentum and enthusiasm for the Vietnamese business community, laying the groundwork for double-digit growth in the coming years.

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