Oil prices continued their second consecutive week of gains this year.

In the first trading session of the week on January 15th (Vietnam time), both Brent and WTI oil prices rose slightly as some major shipping companies continued to avoid transit through the Red Sea following attacks by Houthi forces in retaliation for Israel's war against Hamas.

Global trade declined by 1.3% during the November-December 2023 period, resulting in a decrease in the volume of goods transported within the region.

By the trading session on January 16th (Vietnam time), oil prices were mixed due to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on crude oil production, which prompted profit-taking by investors.

Entering the trading session on January 17th (Vietnam time), the US dollar reached its highest level in a month as investors lowered expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates in March, causing oil prices to plummet.

Oil prices recorded a week of gains, with Brent crude rising by approximately 0.5% and WTI crude increasing by more than 1%. (Illustration: Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group)

The slight fluctuations in oil prices on January 18th (Vietnam time) were influenced by the severe cold snap in North Dakota, the third-largest oil-producing state in the US. Temperatures below 0 degrees Fahrenheit caused oil production there to drop by 650,000 to 700,000 barrels per day.

However, China's slower-than-expected economic recovery has limited the upward momentum in oil prices. China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 reached only 5.2%, 0.1 percentage point lower than forecast.

Oil prices surged on January 19 (Vietnam time) after both the IEA and OPEC forecast increased oil demand this year.

OPEC said that global oil demand is expected to surge by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 and by 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025 compared to the same period the previous year.

Regarding supply, the organization predicts that non-OPEC production will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025.

Meanwhile, the IEA's monthly report projects oil demand to increase by 1.24 million barrels per day this year, up 180,000 barrels per day from its previous forecast.

By the final trading session of the week on January 20th (Vietnam time), oil prices rose amid a shortfall of approximately 30% in US oil production in North Dakota due to severe cold weather.

Previously, oil production in the state had fallen by about 700,000 barrels per day. Authorities said it could take a month for production to return to normal levels.

Overall for the week, Brent crude rose by about 0.5%, and WTI crude rose by more than 1%. Thus, in the first three weeks of 2024, oil prices have fluctuated, with two weeks of increases and one week of decreases.

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