What is UOB's forecast for gold prices?

Gold prices are approaching $2,700 per ounce - Photo: QUANG DINH

Gold prices have risen more than 34% since the beginning of the year.

According to the global market and economic research department of UOB Bank (Singapore), the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has weakened the US dollar, and the low-interest rate environment is creating positive momentum for gold prices.

"The Fed's interest rate cutting cycle, coupled with the weakening of the US dollar and rising borrowing costs, will create significant momentum for gold prices."

Against this backdrop, the general demand among central banks for allocating reserves to gold remains undiminished amid rising geopolitical risks.

Global central banks, particularly those in emerging markets and Asia, continue to view gold as an important reserve and are expected to continue increasing their long-term allocations to gold. Demand for gold from China and India is also increasing,” UOB forecasts.

In fact, the price of gold has surged from over $2,000 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $2,685.5 per ounce on September 26th, equivalent to an increase of approximately 34.3%.

UOB forecasts world gold prices to reach $2,700 per ounce in the fourth quarter of this year.

Throughout the third quarter of 2024, gold consolidated its upward momentum in investment portfolios.

"Given the supporting factors mentioned above, along with increased demand from investors and central banks, we are raising our gold price forecast to $2,700 per ounce in Q4 2024, $2,800 per ounce in Q1 2025, $2,900 per ounce in Q2 2025, and $3,000 per ounce in Q3 2025," UOB forecasts.

According to UOB, the main risk to its positive forecast is the possibility of a sudden resurgence in inflation, forcing the Fed to scale back its planned interest rate cuts. This could lead to a renewed appreciation of the USD and interest rates, which would be detrimental to gold.

World gold prices have corrected sharply after a period of rapid increase - Screenshot

"On the other hand, the resurgence of the USD for various reasons beyond forecasting could also put pressure on gold."

Finally, it should be noted that, despite strong price increases from the beginning of the year to date, gold may occasionally experience short-term price corrections," UOB emphasized.

Please see the latest updates on domestic gold prices HERE.

World gold prices reverse course after a sharp rise.

Yesterday, September 28th, world gold prices plummeted sharply, ending the trading week at $2,657.9 per ounce. This subsequently dragged down domestic gold prices significantly.

Thus, compared to its peak of $2,685.6 per ounce, the world gold price has decreased by $27.7 per ounce, equivalent to a decrease of 830,000 VND per tael.

At the current price, converted using the exchange rate listed at banks, the world gold price is equivalent to only 79.34 million VND per tael.

A new development is that the price of gold in the free market unexpectedly plummeted at the end of September 28th.

According to reports, the selling price of SJC gold bars has plummeted from 87.3 million VND/ounce to 86.3 million VND/ounce, a decrease of 1 million VND/ounce compared to before.

Meanwhile, the price of 9999 gold rings in the free market plummeted even more sharply, from 84.5 million VND/ounce to 82.5 million VND/ounce.

The sharp drop in gold prices has led to an increase in profit-taking, resulting in a relatively abundant supply of gold for sale in the free market, unlike last week when gold prices rose and most people were buying.

SJC company listed the selling price of 9999 gold rings at 83 million VND/ounce on the weekend, and the buying price at 81.5 million VND/ounce.

At Bao Tin Minh Chau Company, the selling price of gold is 83.44 million VND/ounce, and the buying price is 82.54 million VND/ounce.

Meanwhile, DOJI's selling price for 9999 gold rings is 83.45 million VND/ounce, and the buying price is 82.75 million VND/ounce.

Meanwhile, the selling price of SJC gold bars remained unchanged at 83.5 million VND/ounce, while the buying price was 81.5 million VND/ounce.

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/uob-du-bao-gi-ve-gia-vang-2024092912002533.htm