Upward trend prevails, what do experts predict about the market before Lunar New Year?

Vietnam’s coffee exports are gradually improving thanks to increased supplies as the harvest comes to an end. Despite many challenges, the Vietnamese coffee industry still maintains its competitive edge thanks to stable output and high export value.

Coffee price today 1/20/2025

World coffee prices have been little changed in the first two weeks of 2025 as the market has cooled down due to improved supply from Vietnam. Commenting on the market this week, industry experts said that the upward trend is dominant, as supply from Vietnam slows down due to the approaching Lunar New Year holiday and the overbought position is decreasing on both exchanges.

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of this week's trading session (January 17), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in March 2025 increased by 117 USD, trading at 5,006 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 increased by 116 USD, trading at 4,962 USD/ton. Average trading volume.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased, with the March 2025 delivery term up 1.2 cents, trading at 328.35 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 delivery term increased 1.45 cents, trading at 324.60 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.

Last week, Robusta coffee futures for March 2025 delivery increased by 40 USD/ton. Arabica coffee futures for March 2025 delivery decreased by 0.5 cent/lb. This week's performance is in contrast to last week - when Robusta futures for March 2025 delivery decreased by 2 USD/ton. Arabica coffee futures for March 2025 delivery increased by 5.2 cent/lb.

The reason why coffee prices have been able to maintain their upward momentum since September is mainly due to concerns about supply shortages in the market. In addition, speculation has been boosted after the US election results, which has also been an important factor pushing prices to new historical milestones.

In the past three months, the global coffee market has shifted towards a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, leading to concerns about a shortage of supply, thereby supporting price increases. On the supply side, the less positive outlook for the 2024-2025 coffee crop in Brazil and Vietnam has caused the market to face concerns about a supply-demand deficit. In Brazil, rainfall has been below historical average since April, causing world organizations to cut their forecasts for the 2024-2025 coffee crop in the world's largest coffee producing and exporting country.

Domestic coffee prices on January 19 continued to increase sharply by 500 - 1,000 VND in some key purchasing localities. (Source: doanhnhan.biz)

Domestic coffee prices have increased steadily over the past weekend, currently trading at around 119,300 - 120,000 VND/kg. Domestically, the coffee harvest season in the Central Highlands provinces is currently in its final stages, although supply has increased, coffee prices remain high, helping farmers earn good incomes.

Regarding output, initial forecasts estimated a decline of 10-15%, but at this point, we can be optimistic that output will only decrease slightly by about 5% compared to the same period last year. The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that Vietnam's coffee exports in the fourth quarter of 2024 reached 208,000 tons, worth 1.16 billion USD; compared to the same period in 2023, it decreased by 44% in volume but increased by 4% in value. Currently, farmers have finished harvesting but are not in a hurry to sell, so there are many goods but few transactions.

Domestic coffee prices on January 19 continued to increase sharply by 500 - 1,000 VND in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,120	0
DAK LAK	120,000	+ 700
LAM DONG	119,300	+ 1,000
GIA LAI	119,800	+ 500
DAK NONG	120,000	+ 500

(Source: giacaphe.com)

As December approached, the coffee market began to correct downwards. This is a normal trend after a sharp increase in prices, when investors took profits. In addition, the faster progress of harvesting in Vietnam towards the end of the year also contributed to the sharp decline in prices.

Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States on January 20 (US time) in Washington DC. The Arabica exchange is also scheduled to close on this day, next Monday. Coffee exchanges in particular and the financial market in general are eagerly awaiting the next steps of the new US President.

US President-elect Donald Trump said on January 18 that he expected to sign a record number of executive orders after being sworn in, starting “immediately” after his inaugural address. Asked if that number would exceed 100, Trump said “at least in that range.”

Thus, the financial market is expected to have many changes. The USD increased again last weekend, which is considered a challenge for the increase in coffee prices next week.

Coffee prices are expected to remain high due to no prospects of a significant recovery in world coffee production, low inventory levels and stable demand.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2012025-xu-huong-tang-gia-chiem-uu-the-chuyen-gia-du-bao-ve-thi-truong-truoc-tet-nguyen-dan-301543.html