The 2023–2024 coffee crop has only begun for a few months, but the Vietnamese coffee industry has already received good news about prices and markets. This is the basis for many to expect that Vietnamese coffee will break the record for export turnover in 2023.
Coffee exports expected to break record. Illustration photo: VNA
Positive signs
In the 2022-2023 crop year (from October 2022 to September 2023), Vietnam's coffee export volume will only reach 1.66 million tons, down 4.5% compared to the 2021-2022 crop year. However, the export value will still increase by 3.4% to a record $4.08 billion thanks to high prices.
Entering the 2023–2024 coffee crop year (October 2023 to September 2024), the Vietnamese coffee industry has received good news about selling prices. In the first month, Vietnam's average coffee export price increased to a record high of 3,603 USD/ton, up 8.9% compared to September 2023 and up 40.7% compared to October 2022. In the first 10 months of 2023, the average coffee export price reached 2,535 USD/ton, up 10.6% over the same period last year.
Coffee market expert Nguyen Quang Binh predicts that coffee prices in the 2023-2024 crop year will continue to stay high. By June 2024, if major economies in the world continue to reduce interest rates, coffee exports will continue to benefit because this is the time when roasters around the world buy and stockpile, so coffee prices are unlikely to fall.
Will export value set a new record?
According to the Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), Vietnam currently has more than 710,000 hectares of coffee, ranking 6th in the world in terms of coffee growing area, but thanks to the highest productivity in the world, Vietnam currently has the second largest annual coffee harvest in the world (about 1.75 to 1.85 million tons).
Promoting Vietnamese coffee abroad. Photo: Thanh Tung/VNS
However, according to the forecast of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association, in the 2023-2024 crop year, our country's coffee output may decrease by about 10%, mainly due to the impact of climate change and increased intercropping area.
However, many experts still make optimistic forecasts that in 2023, Vietnam's coffee export value may reach the same level or even exceed the record high of last year. The reason is that according to statistics from Vietnam Customs, in the first 11 months of 2023, Vietnam's coffee export turnover is estimated to reach nearly 3.5 billion USD, up 3.4% over the same period in 2022, despite the continuous decline in export volume in recent months. If the export value reaches 600 million USD in December, the coffee export value will exceed the record set last year.
According to Mr. Do Ha Nam , Vice President of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association, up to this point, coffee output has decreased 4 times but coffee prices have increased by 3.4%. At one point, coffee prices increased to 70,000 VND/kg. It is forecasted that in the 2023-2024 crop year, coffee prices may increase further due to a shortage of supply.
In addition to the increase in export prices, the basis for experts to make the above optimistic forecast is that the proportion of processed coffee in the total volume of exported coffee is increasing, thereby contributing to increasing the export value of Vietnamese coffee. Mr. Le Duc Huy, General Director of Dak Lak 2-9 Import-Export Company Limited (Simexco DakLak), although the export volume has decreased, the proportion of roasted and ground coffee has increased quite a bit, so the export value of coffee is still increasing.
According to the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association, from November 2022 to November 2023, robusta coffee accounted for the highest proportion of total export volume with 1.49 million tons, worth 3.3 billion USD. Arabica coffee beans were only exported 41,500 tons, worth 169 million USD, decaffeinated coffee beans 36,000 tons, worth 136 million USD. Roasted and instant coffee exports were about 90,000 tons (not converted to green coffee), worth about 510 million USD (accounting for about 5.4% in volume and about 12.5% in turnover in the coffee export structure of the 2022-2023 crop year).
In addition, according to Mr. Le Duc Huy, the increase in the export price of green coffee beans also proves the stability of quality from the plantation to the purchasing and exporting system, which has invested in science, technology and techniques. Vietnamese coffee is considered by importers to be delicious and quite stable. Therefore, roasters around the world prioritize buying Vietnamese coffee./.
Vu Hoa
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