| By the first half of November, total merchandise import and export turnover reached US$587.68 billion. Imports and exports surpassed the US$600 billion mark, resulting in a record trade surplus. |
Amidst inflation and tight financial conditions in many countries leading to decreased consumer demand, alongside the efforts of businesses, timely support from the Government and ministries, including the active role of the Ministry of Industry and Trade , has helped import and export activities in 2023 record many positive points.
Record trade surplus
According to the latest report from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the total import and export turnover of the whole country after 11 months reached US$619.2 billion, of which exports totaled US$322.5 billion and imports US$296.7 billion. The brightest spot in import and export activities is that the trade balance continued to record a surplus for the eighth consecutive year, with a surplus of US$25.83 billion after 11 months - an impressive increase of 250% compared to the same period in 2022. This result contributes positively to the balance of payments, helps increase foreign exchange reserves, stabilizes the exchange rate and other macroeconomic indicators of the economy.
Amidst continued slow global economic growth and declining global demand, Vietnam's exports have persevered through challenges. While not yet reaching the same growth levels as the previous year, the decline has narrowed. Specifically, the export downturn decreased from 12% in the first half of 2023 to 5.9% in the first 11 months of 2023. Furthermore, export activities have successfully diversified their markets. While exports to major markets have declined, export turnover to African, Eastern European, Northern European, and West Asian countries has increased. The decline in exports to some key markets continues to narrow (the decline in exports to the US narrowed from 22.6% in the first half of 2023 to 13.1% in the first 11 months of 2023; to the EU from 10.1% to 8.1%; to South Korea from 10.2% to 4%...).
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| Despite facing many difficulties, import and export activities in 2023 still showed positive growth. (Photo: Can Dung) |
In particular, recent export activities have witnessed significant efforts from ministries and agencies, including the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in effectively managing and facilitating exports to China. As a result, goods have remained largely unobstructed, even during peak seasons, contributing to increased export turnover to the Chinese market. This is also the only market among Vietnam's major export markets to achieve positive growth (Vietnam's exports to China reversed from a 2.2% decrease to a 6.2% increase after 11 months), while other major markets experienced declines.
Furthermore, the domestic economic sector continued its efforts to maintain and expand export markets amidst challenging global economic conditions. The decline in exports from this sector (down 2.2%) was significantly lower than the decline in exports from the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil), which fell by 7.1% in the first 11 months of 2023. Regarding key export product groups, the Ministry of Industry and Trade indicated that in the first 11 months of 2023, 33 product categories achieved export turnover exceeding US$1 billion, with 7 categories exceeding US$10 billion, accounting for 66% of the total turnover. Many agricultural product groups, including rice and fruits, have taken advantage of market opening opportunities and rising prices to boost exports. “The structure of export goods continues to improve in a positive direction, reducing the proportion of raw material exports and increasing the export of processed and industrial products, creating conditions for Vietnamese goods to participate more deeply in the global production and supply chain. Processed industrial goods continue to account for the majority (85%) of the export turnover structure,” the Ministry of Industry and Trade pointed out.
Conversely, import activities basically met the demand for raw materials and fuels for production and consumption. Imports of goods for export production and essential goods increased, accounting for 88.5% of the total import value; imports of goods whose import is not encouraged accounted for only 5.7% of the total import value.
Addressing existing shortcomings and limitations
Although the decline in exports continues to narrow, the Ministry of Industry and Trade affirms that, fundamentally, it has not yet recovered to the same period of the previous year. Therefore, exports in 2023 are estimated at approximately 354-355 billion USD, a decrease of 4.5% compared to the same period of the previous year, failing to meet the planned target (6% increase). Export turnover to most key markets decreased, although the rate of decline is gradually narrowing.
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| Vegetables and fruits are key export items. Photo: Doveco |
Furthermore, the level of dependence on the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector for exports remains high, with FDI enterprises' export turnover, including crude oil, still accounting for approximately 73% of the country's total export turnover (11 months of 2023). Value added in exports has not met expectations. The export capacity of wholly Vietnamese-owned enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, is still low.
Export activities began showing positive signs of recovery from the last months of 2023. In 2024, along with effectively utilizing existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), the conclusion of negotiations and implementation of FTAs with new markets such as Israel and the UAE will further boost trade, investment, and especially Vietnam's exports. The improved and strengthened political relations with major partners such as China, the United States, and the EU create a foundation for expanding economic, trade, and investment cooperation. Given these developments, the Ministry of Industry and Trade aims to increase total export turnover by approximately 6% in 2024 compared to 2023. The trade balance is expected to maintain a surplus (projected surplus of approximately US$15 billion).
To achieve this result, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will accelerate negotiations and the signing of new trade agreements, commitments, and linkages, including Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and trade agreements with other potential partners (UAE, MERCOSUR, etc.) to diversify markets, products, and supply chains. In addition, it will support businesses in leveraging commitments in FTAs, especially the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the Vietnam-EU FTA (EVFTA), and the Vietnam-UK FTA (UKVFTA), to boost exports through disseminating information on rules of origin and the issuance of certificates of origin, as well as opportunities and ways to take advantage of these agreements. Simultaneously, coordinate with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to negotiate with China to open up more export markets for other Vietnamese vegetables and fruits… Improve efficiency and regulate the speed of customs clearance of import and export goods at border gates between Vietnam and China, especially for seasonal agricultural and aquatic products; quickly and strongly shift towards official export channels.
| In 2024, the goal is to increase total export turnover by approximately 6% compared to 2023; and maintain a trade surplus (expected surplus of approximately 15 billion USD). |
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