The current population problem is challenging the American economy.

This is not just a phenomenon unique to the US, but a global trend with far-reaching economic consequences.

The US birth rate has now fallen to a record low, below the threshold needed to maintain the natural population size.

The natural population growth rate of the United States is now slowing down as the baby boomers, born after World War II, are aging, and subsequent generations are having fewer children.

According to projections from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), by 2030, the number of annual deaths will exceed the number of births. Meanwhile, immigration – a factor that could offset natural population decline – is becoming a contentious issue in American politics and has declined sharply under President Donald Trump.

People stroll at the Washington Monument in the United States. Photo: Reuters

From 2020 to the present, the US population has only increased by an average of about 0.6% per year, equivalent to one-third of the rate of increase in the 1950s – the peak of the baby boom. Much of this modest increase has come from immigration. However, with current policies, that trend is reversing, and the US population could nearly plateau around 2050.

As modern life changes the family model

What is happening in the US is actually a development trend that many countries have experienced. As the economy shifts from agriculture to industry and services, people leave rural areas for cities to find work. Family sizes are shrinking, while women are increasingly entering the workforce thanks to wider educational and career opportunities.

During the 1950s, the US population grew at an average rate of 1.7% per year—the highest rate since the beginning of the 20th century. However, along with the increase in the number of women in the workforce, the birth rate began to decline.

Notably, birth rates have continued to decline over the past 15 years, even as women's labor participation rates have peaked and are trending downwards.

Economists point to many factors influencing decisions about having children and starting a family. The 2007-2009 financial crisis and the subsequent slow recovery are one example. This was also a time when the birth rate in the US declined sharply.

This is partly due to the rising cost of raising children. Healthcare, education , college tuition, childcare, and housing costs have all increased significantly faster than general inflation over the past several decades. In many communities, access to affordable healthcare, health insurance, and childcare remains a major challenge.

This financial pressure is causing many Americans to postpone starting a family or decide to have fewer children.

Changes in the employment structure also contribute to demographic trends. Over the past several decades, professional, office, and service jobs have increased significantly, while jobs in manufacturing, construction, and transportation have gradually declined.

New professions often open up more opportunities for women, particularly in education, healthcare, and services. Conversely, the decline of traditional professions that traditionally employ a large number of men is considered one of the reasons for the decrease in male labor participation rates.

The current debate is whether America should adapt to a new employment structure or attempt to restore traditional employment models lost due to globalization and automation. These demographic changes are particularly important for the sustainability of social security and healthcare programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

The principle of these systems is that those currently working pay taxes to support those who have retired. The more working-age people there are compared to the number of retirees, the easier the system is to sustain.

In 1970, for every retiree, there were approximately five people of working age supporting them. By 2030, this ratio is projected to fall to below three.

This means the U.S. will face difficult choices such as increasing public debt, cutting welfare benefits, or raising taxes.

The demographic structure of the United States is also undergoing a significant transformation. While in 1970 the "population pyramid" had a wide base with a large proportion of young people, by 2030 this shape will become flatter, reflecting an increasing proportion of older people.

Experts believe the likelihood of a strong recovery in birth rates is quite low. Even if that were to happen, it would take decades before the workforce is replenished. Therefore, immigration is seen as the most important policy factor that could help offset future population and workforce declines.

Global trends

The US is not an isolated case. The United Nations projects the world population will peak at around 10.3-10.4 billion people in the 2080s before beginning to decline.

An increasing number of countries are recording birth rates at or below the replacement threshold. Those countries that still maintain strong natural population growth are mainly concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria.

If current trends continue, future population growth in many countries will no longer come from the number of children born, but primarily from the movement of people between countries and regions around the world.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/bai-toan-dan-so-hien-huu-thach-thuc-nen-kinh-te-my-990181.html