ANTD.VN - The Central Institute for Economic Research (CIEM, Ministry of Planning and Investment) forecasts the highest GDP growth rate this year at 6.46%, lower than the target set by the National Assembly (6.5%). This growth rate is projected to be achieved if exports decrease and inflation is controlled below 4.5%.
 |
The company's business operations are gradually improving. |
Based on the economic growth results of the first six months of 2023 and the forecast for the last six months, CIEM has just released three economic growth scenarios. Specifically:
Scenario 1: Assuming global economic factors continue to remain consistent with assessments by international organizations and Vietnam maintains similar policy efforts as in the second half of 2021-2022; GDP growth is projected to reach 5.34% in 2023. Exports for the whole year 2023 are projected to decrease by 5.64%. The average CPI for the whole year 2023 is projected to increase by 3.43%. The trade balance is projected to achieve a surplus of US$9.1 billion.
Scenario 2 retains most of the assumptions in Scenario 1 regarding global economic factors, but includes some adjustments for more positive monetary and fiscal easing in Vietnam. Accordingly, GDP growth is projected at 5.72% in 2023. Exports for the whole year 2023 are expected to decrease by 3.66%. The average CPI for the whole year 2023 is projected to increase by 3.87%. The trade balance is expected to achieve a surplus of US$10.3 billion.
Scenario 3 assumes a more positive global economic context (recovered growth, significantly reduced supply chain disruptions, lower inflation in the US, more favorable weather conditions, etc.) and decisive reforms and governance in Vietnam, thereby maximizing the disbursement/absorption of public investment and credit, improving the business environment and labor productivity, and promoting and implementing investment activities in a more efficient manner; GDP growth is projected at 6.46% in 2023. Exports for the whole year 2023 are projected to decrease by 2.17%. The average CPI for the whole year 2023 is projected to increase by 4.39%. The trade balance is projected to achieve a surplus of US$6.8 billion.
According to CIEM, although still lagging behind the set target, Vietnam's economic growth has improved between quarters, reaching 3.28% in Q1 2023 and 4.14% in Q2 2023. Overall, in the first six months of 2023, the growth rate reached 3.72%.
Experience from 2020-2022 has shown that Vietnam has often experienced growth slowdowns in the first one or two quarters of the year, but has subsequently recovered strongly in the later months.
Therefore, CIEM believes that the challenging context in the first months of 2023 also presents a "positive pressure" for the Vietnamese Government , ministries, and localities to be more decisive in governance and reform in the coming period.
Source link
Comment (0)