A new turning point for the race for the White House?

An alarming situation.

On the afternoon of September 15th (local time), while playing golf, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump appeared to become the target of another assassination attempt. According to the FBI, the suspect, identified as Ryan Routh, has been arrested. Investigators say the suspect, armed with an AK-47 rifle, was lurking in the bushes while Trump was playing golf in West Palm Beach, before being spotted and shot by Secret Service agents.

Suspect Ryan Routh during a previous arrest for a traffic violation. Photo: Reuters

Thus, in just two months, the United States has experienced two incidents, both targeting Republican candidate Donald Trump. This highlights the alarming level of gun violence in America, especially leading up to elections. Americans have had to adapt to changes in the country's political landscape, which seem to have intensified in recent years. Language has become harsher, partisan divisions have deepened, and standards of conduct for candidates have eroded.

Given the rampant gun violence across the United States, attacks like this may be an inevitable “new normal.” But for now, it remains shocking. Vice President Kamala Harris said in a statement following the Florida incident: “Violence has no place in America.”

Details of the assassination attempt, particularly the identity and motives of the attacker, will undoubtedly have an impact on American politics. However, in his first statement after the golf course incident, Trump pledged that nothing could slow him down or make him surrender. This response is consistent with his campaign argument that he became a target because he spoke out for forgotten Americans. His words after the first near-assassination attempt last July were “fight, fight, fight,” and this became the rallying cry of his supporters.

The impact of the assassination on the US presidential race.

According to RBC, Alexey Naumov, an expert from the Russian Council on International Affairs (RIAC), believes that the second assassination attempt occurred against the backdrop of a stalled Republican candidate's campaign. During the live debate between the two candidates on the night of September 10th (local time), Vice President Kamala Harris controlled the debate and continuously attacked Trump, exposing his weaknesses for almost the entire two hours of the debate.

Harris's performance can be considered a success for the Democratic Party, as she did not lose on what is considered Trump's "specialty." Furthermore, Trump has lagged behind his opponent in most recent opinion polls. In a New York Times study, former President Donald Trump is trailing – currently receiving 47% support compared to Harris's 49%.

Photo: Reuters

Donald Trump trails his opponent by three places in the ABC News poll, 45% to 48%. According to data on Polymarket (a decentralized platform for prediction markets that allows users to bet on the outcomes of world events), Trump has narrowed the gap to a minimum – 49% to 50%, although at the end of August, the platform recorded Harris holding a 4% lead over Trump.

However, expert Alexey Naumov argues that this incident will not significantly impact the race for the White House. In fact, some media outlets, including The New York Post and The New York Times, have begun spreading the idea that reports of an assassination attempt have been exaggerated. The New York Post described the situation as a shooting between two individuals targeting each other, not Republican candidate Donald Trump. Many believe the incident is being portrayed as an assassination attempt because of the clear benefits the former White House leader could gain from such an interpretation.

Clearly, this incident doesn't carry the same emotional weight as the shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania, last July. That attack occurred at a public campaign rally, in front of television cameras, capturing images of the injured and determined former president. This time, the incident happened on a golf course owned by Mr. Trump, so he was in less danger.

According to experts, the Pennsylvania assassination occurred after a victorious televised debate between Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden, allowing the Republican Party to mobilize its members, some of whom even spoke of “divine intervention” that saved their candidate’s life (similar claims are still heard today). At the Republican National Convention, where Trump was officially nominated as the US presidential candidate, some delegates wore an earring over their right ear as a sign of solidarity with him.

Now, the political landscape in the United States is different: Trump appears to have lost ground in the televised debate to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who replaced Biden, and in national opinion polls, he trails her by an average of 2-3%. Furthermore, according to research by Morning Consult, for the first time since 2012, the Republican Party risks losing Florida to the Democrats.

The events of the two assassination attempts also differed significantly. In July, Trump was actually injured, the rally was televised live, and many saw him leave the stage with Secret Service agents, fist raised, urging his supporters to “Fight!” This time, no one was injured, and American voters only heard a rather vague statement: “There was a shooting near former President Donald Trump.”

Expert Alexey Naumov believes the failed assassination attempt will "provide more ammunition for Republican propagandists" but will have little impact on the party's candidate rankings. According to Naumov, in the remaining weeks before the election, Donald Trump needs to battle Vice President Kamala Harris in Democratic strongholds, presenting concrete and persuasive political initiatives to garner support from American voters.

Ha Anh

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/ong-trump-bi-am-sat-hut-lan-hai-buoc-ngoat-moi-cho-cuoc-dua-vao-nha-trang-post312864.html