Banks raise forecasts for the yuan.

VTV.vn - Many global investment banks are raising their forecasts for the yuan, thanks to China's export strength and expectations of more stable trade relations with the US.

Global financial institutions raise their forecasts for the yuan.

Since the beginning of the year, the Chinese yuan has recorded solid growth, rising nearly 3% against the US dollar and trading at 6.8040 yuan/USD in the first trading session of the week on May 18th. Compared to a basket of currencies of major trading partners, the yuan has also appreciated by approximately 2.6%.

Analysts from leading financial institutions have pointed to positive fundamental factors supporting the currency's upward trend:

HSBC has raised its forecast for the yuan exchange rate at the end of this year to 6.65 yuan/USD, compared to its previous forecast of 6.75 yuan/USD. HSBC experts believe that, in addition to export strength, the trend towards internationalizing the yuan, long-term diversification efforts to reduce dependence on the US dollar, and the economic rebalancing process are core domestic structural factors supporting the yuan.

In terms of foreign policy, US-China economic relations have become more stable and constructive since May 2025.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank expects strong import growth in China this year to pave the way for further appreciation of the yuan. According to economists Yi Xiong and Deyun Ou, the increase in China's imports of raw materials is expected to trigger a recovery in export orders or domestic demand, or even both. Deutsche Bank currently forecasts the base exchange rate between the yuan and the dollar to reach 6.55 yuan/USD by the end of 2026, a significant increase from its previous forecast of 6.70 yuan/USD.

Sharing this view, Goldman Sachs assesses that the yuan's upward trend will have further room and "last longer," thanks to China's record foreign trade surplus and superior export competitiveness. The bank emphasizes that, despite headwinds from the conflict in Iran and rising energy costs, the medium-term outlook for the Chinese economy remains positive. The wave of global investment in energy security and renewable energy is expected to continue to significantly benefit the country's export sector.

Goldman Sachs forecasts the exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and the US dollar to reach 6.80 yuan/USD, 6.70 yuan/USD, and 6.50 yuan/USD in the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively, a significant improvement over previous forecasts of 6.85 yuan/USD, 6.80 yuan/USD, and 6.70 yuan/USD.

Source: https://vtv.vn/cac-ngan-hang-nang-du-bao-voi-dong-ndt-100260519060848503.htm