Stocks near peak: Bright picture with 'beautiful numbers'

The stock market continues to paint a picture reflecting positive investor expectations. However, factors have emerged that raise some concerns.

Vietnam’s stock market continues to be the center of attention right before the National Day holiday on September 2. After two consecutive sessions of increase, the VN-Index has returned to near its historical peak. However, strong net selling pressure from foreign investors with a value of about VND4,000 billion on August 27 has many individual investors cautiously observing.

During the trading session on August 28, the VN-Index fluctuated quite strongly. At the end of the morning session, the VN-Index decreased slightly by 3.46 points, but at the end of the trading session, the index increased by 8.08 points (+0.48%) to 1,680.86 points.

This is a bright picture with pretty nice numbers.

However, there are still some factors that raise concerns. Although the index maintained its upward momentum, liquidity decreased to about VND37,000 billion on all three exchanges (much lower than the VND45,000-60,000 billion levels in previous sessions) and foreign investors continued to sell strongly, focusing on many large-cap stocks.

Typically, in the session of August 28, foreign investors net sold about 1.1 million Vinhomes shares (VHM), more than 800,000 Vincom Retail shares (VRE), about 200,000 FPT shares, nearly 22 million Hoa Phat Group shares (HPG), nearly 12 million MBBank shares (MBB), more than 11 millionSHB Bank shares, about 5 million SSI Securities shares (SSI), about 300,000 Vietcombank shares (VCB), 5 million VPBank shares (VPB)...

However, foreign investors also net bought a few stocks such as:ACB , MWG, TCB, TPB...

At the end of the trading session on August 28, strong demand from domestic investors pushed most stocks in the VN30 group up, except for Vingroup (VIC) which fell by VND1,900 to VND130,100/share; ACB, BID,FPT , MBB, PLX, STB, VCB, VIB decreased slightly. Many other bank stocks increased in price.

VN-Index is at its historical peak. Photo: HH

Thus, the stock market has had 3 consecutive sessions of increase, with a total of about 65 points after losing 70 points in the previous 2 sessions. VN-Index has returned close to the record peak of 1,688 points recorded last week. Compared to the bottom of 1,100 points in April, this index has increased about 53%.

Previously, many securities companies warned of a correction of about 10-15% before rising again. But developments show that the correction of 70 points is quite low and the market is still going up.

Sharing with VietNamNet, Mr. Le Quang Tri - Director of Brokerage at Nhat Viet Securities JSC, said that the stock market is developing quite positively. Low liquidity is common before long holidays. The market has differentiation and adjustment at a low level.

Regarding foreign net selling, Mr. Tri commented that foreign investors selectively sold some stocks, possibly to rebalance their portfolios and also partly due to concerns about exchange rates. Overall, there is nothing to worry about.

In the coming time, according to Mr. Tri, investors still expect positive economic growth prospects, strong public investment activities of the Government, and money supply growth.

Investors also expect low interest rates, especially as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates twice in the remaining four months of 2025.

Expectations of a stock market upgrade are also a supporting factor for the VN-Index.

With this development, the expected stock groups will continue to be: banking, securities, real estate, public investment...

Statistics show that in the first 6 months of the year, bank credit has flowed strongly into real estate. At listed banks, outstanding credit for this sector has increased by about 20% compared to the beginning of the year, to more than 880 trillion VND. The sharp increase in real estate credit often causes concern, but if the quality of loans is well controlled, this can be considered a positive signal. Real estate still accounts for a large proportion of economic growth and continues to be an important driving force for development.

Many securities companies have given positive outlooks in the medium and long term thanks to expectations of FTSE market upgrade at the end of September, public investment policy growing around 20%, high credit and the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates.

FTSE Russell met with the State Securities Commission (SSC) in Hanoi today. From September 2, the organisation will launch formal review sessions through the FTSE Stock Market Classification Advisory Committee.

Currently, the world has only two large, reputable financial institutions that conduct market rankings: MSCI (USA) and FTSE Russell (UK), with three basic levels: frontier, emerging and developed markets. Vietnam is still classified by both organizations as a frontier market.

Since the KRX system officially operated with the Non-Prefunding trading mechanism for foreign investors, effective from November 2024, the market has recorded a sharp increase in trading volume under this mechanism, with the value doubling compared to the previous period. Experts expect that Vietnamese securities will soon be upgraded, possibly this period or at the latest in the semi-annual period of March next year.

If FTSE announces the upgrade in September 2025, Vietnam will officially be added 50% to the index basket by May 2026, with the remaining 50% added in subsequent periods. It is estimated that the Vietnamese market can attract nearly 1 billion USD from passive funds, while active capital flows can be many times higher.

Gold price rose to 127.7 million VND/tael, stocks skyrocketed on August 26. Gold price on August 26 soared to a new peak, while the stock market increased sharply towards the peak of 1,700 points with pillar stocks increasing strongly, including many stocks hitting the ceiling.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/chung-khoan-len-sat-dinh-buc-tranh-tuoi-sang-voi-nhung-con-so-dep-2437214.html