"We haven't won yet..."

The National Rally (RN) party of far-right politician Marine Le Pen is predicted to win a resounding victory after the first round of the French parliamentary elections held on June 30, according to post-election polls.

The RN party is projected to win around 34% of the vote, far exceeding the results achieved by the centrist Ensemble coalition of French President Emmanuel Macron, which received less than 24% of the vote. Meanwhile, the left-wing NFP coalition is projected to win around 29%.

“We haven’t won yet, the second round will be crucial… We need an absolute majority so that Jordan Bardella, in eight days, can be appointed Prime Minister by Emmanuel Macron,” Le Pen said.

The final outcome depends on the second round of voting on July 7th, in which Le Pen's RN party needs 289 seats to secure an absolute majority in the 577-seat Parliament .

According to the projected results of the June 30th vote, the far-right party is expected to win only 230-280 seats, 8 seats short of the amount needed for an absolute majority, but still enough to make coalition negotiations difficult for either the left or the centrist parties.

Far-right politician Marine Le Pen, candidate of the National Rally (RN) party, speaks after partial results of the first round of the early French parliamentary election were announced in Henin-Beaumont, France, on June 30, 2024. Photo: NPR

The results of the first round were a major blow to President Macron, who had triggered this snap election after his party's disappointing performance in the European Parliament (EP) elections.

The French president is expected to remain in office regardless of the final outcome and has three years left in his term.

Voter turnout on June 30th was unusually high, around 59%, 20 percentage points higher than the 2022 election. It remains to be seen how well that turnout will be maintained in the second round, and whether Macron can coordinate with the left to prevent the far-right from gaining a majority.

The period between now and the second round of elections on July 7th will see political activity from all parties, making the upcoming election results difficult to predict.

But a possible outcome after the second round could be a “hung parliament,” said Mujtaba Rahman of Eurasia Group, meaning Macron would have to form a caretaker government with significantly reduced powers.

“France is currently facing the prospect of a weak interim government ahead of new elections in 2025, which would leave France – a G7 member and permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) – almost at a loss for control this year,” Rahman said.

Minh Duc (According to National Review, GZero Media)

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/chinh-tri-gia-cuc-huu-phap-marine-le-pen-chung-ta-van-chua-thang-a670935.html