COMEX copper pulls metal market, MXV-Index adds another green session

COMEX copper prices surge, hit two-month peak

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the metal market was covered in green yesterday. Most notably, the COMEX copper contract for December delivery increased by 3.65% to 10,611 USD/ton - the highest level since the plunge at the end of July.

According to MXV, the main driver for the COMEX copper price increase comes from supply risks. A serious incident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia forced Freeport McMoRan - the largest mining group in the US and also one of the world's leading copper producers - to declare force majeure, causing the world's second largest copper mine to temporarily stop mining. The group warned that production in 2026 could drop by up to 35% compared to the original plan. At the same time, social unrest in Peru continued to disrupt mining operations, forcing Hudbay Minerals to close the Constancia ore processing plant. Two consecutive "shocks" in the two largest global production centers immediately fueled concerns about supply shortages, contributing to the skyrocketing price of COMEX copper.

However, the current rally is unlikely to be sustainable. Statistics from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) show that the global refined copper market remained in surplus of more than 100,000 tonnes in the first seven months of the year, although this figure has narrowed significantly compared to last year. That is, the supply-demand balance is not necessarily tilted towards deficit, and prices may come under pressure to adjust as market tensions ease.

Domestically, the escalating world copper price has directly pushed up import costs, causing the import volume in the first half of September to decrease by nearly 6% compared to the end of August. However, the import level is still 8.3% higher than the same period in 2024, a sign that domestic demand remains stable, reflecting the relatively good resilience of the domestic market to fluctuations in world prices.

World oil prices continue to recover strongly

According to MXV, the energy market yesterday continued to witness strong buying power with 4 out of 5 commodities increasing in price. Notably, the two crude oil commodities increased by nearly 2.5% to 64.9 USD/barrel for WTI oil and 69.3 USD/barrel for Brent oil.

Crude oil prices rebounded after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude inventories fell 607,000 barrels in the week ended September 19, compared with forecasts for a slight increase. The API had previously estimated a decline of nearly 4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell more than 1 million barrels despite increased refining capacity, reflecting that demand in the world's largest economy remained stable after the peak driving season.

Geopolitical factors continue to squeeze supplies. The US Treasury Department has tightened licensing terms for Chevron, forcing its joint venture in Venezuela to pay in kind rather than cash—a move that could cut oil exports from the South American country by as much as 50%. At the same time, ongoing tensions in Ukraine and Gaza continue to threaten to disrupt supplies from Russia and the Middle East.

In another development, natural gas prices in the US reversed course yesterday. The natural gas contract for November delivery on the NYMEX closed at $3.13/MMBtu, down 0.22%. According to BloombergNEF, supply pressure continues to weigh on natural gas prices, along with inventories in the US still on a strong upward trend, further anchoring cautious sentiment in the market.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/dong-comex-keo-thi-truong-kim-loai-mxvindex-them-mot-phien-xanh-20250925090632589.htm