Domestic cash flow remains cautious amid recovery expectations.

On April 17, 2025, the Vietnamese stock market witnessed mixed movements. The VN-Index recovered positively towards the end of the session, mainly thanks to large-cap (blue-chip) stocks. However, a significant negative factor was the strong net selling by foreign investors and especially by securities companies' proprietary trading desks. This raises serious questions about the market's sustainable recovery momentum.

In contrast to the cautious and sluggish start to the session, the market reversed positively towards the end of the day, with key stocks surging, pushing the VN-Index above the reference level and closing at its daily high of 1,217.25 points, up 6.95 points. The VN30 index also recorded a gain of nearly 10 points, reaching 1,303.03 points with 18 gainers, many of whom rose by more than 2%, such as VIC, VHM, LPB, GEX, DIG, and HVN.

Vingroup's stock has increased by nearly 70% in the past month or so.

In particular, the VIC - VHM pair staged a spectacular comeback. At 2:15 PM, VHM had fallen by as much as 2.3% but by the end of the session, it had reversed course and risen by 0.53%. VIC even surged strongly, closing up 4.57%.FPT , LPB, and MSN also saw impressive gains of 1.39%, 2.91%, and 2.68%, respectively.

Analyst Le Huu Nghia from Tri Viet Securities Joint Stock Company stated: “The strong reversal at the end of the day shows that the market still has support from the leading stocks, especially during the derivatives expiration session. However, it is noteworthy that liquidity did not increase proportionally with the price, reflecting the cautiousness of domestic capital flows.”

Market liquidity on April 17th increased slightly by 10.99% in value, but trading volume decreased by 0.24% compared to the previous session. The total trading value on the HoSE reached VND 21,614 billion, but most of the buying pressure came from efforts to boost leading stocks rather than from a wider flow of capital.

Notably, while the overall price level improved significantly with 261 gainers/174 losers (compared to 156 gainers/285 losers at the 2:15 PM low), trading volume remained 25.3% lower than the 20-day average. This situation reflects investor skepticism, especially in the absence of new supporting information and the continued potential for short-term profit-taking pressure.

Another notable point is the rather aggressive net selling by securities firms' proprietary trading desks – a group of professional investors who usually play a role in "regulating" the flow of money in the market. The total net selling value in the session reached VND 186 billion, mainly concentrated on large-cap stocks such as: FPT: The most heavily sold with VND 79 billion – despite this stock recording a good increase of 1.39%. STB and E1VFVN30: Net sold for VND 48 billion and VND 37 billion respectively. In addition, other stocks such as KOS, GEX, PNJ, andVIB also saw divestment by proprietary trading desks.

Conversely, securities firms' proprietary trading desks only made modest net purchases of HPG (32 billion VND), FUEVFVND (12 billion VND), and a few other stocks such as VIC, MBB, and VHM. On the HNX and UPCoM exchanges, proprietary trading was quite limited, with total net purchases below 1 billion VND.

According to Mr. Nguyen Huy Phuong, Senior Manager at the Analysis Center of Rong Viet Securities (VDSC): “The strong net selling by proprietary traders in stocks showing signs of recovery is unusual. This could be a periodic portfolio restructuring activity or reflect a cautious view on the current recovery. If this trend continues, the market will lack an important technical support.”

Besides proprietary trading, foreign investors continued to be the "negative focal point" with net selling totaling VND 4,585 billion - the highest level in many weeks. In particular, VIC saw a sharp net selling of VND 4,446 billion through block trades. Other stocks also faced significant pressure, such as VNM (-120 billion VND), HPG (-98 billion VND), STB (-85 billion VND), etc.

On the buying side, FPT shares were the focus with a net buying value of VND 117 billion - despite selling pressure from proprietary trading desks. In addition, VCI, MWG, VHM, and HVN also attracted significant foreign buying interest.

The discrepancy in the behavior of foreign and domestic investors compared to the rest of the market makes the money flow picture more unpredictable. On the one hand, the upward pull on key stocks at the end of the session reflects expectations of a recovery; on the other hand, the selling pressure from institutional investors reflects caution and uncertainty about a new upward trend.

Technically, the VN-Index is still holding the important support zone of 1,200 points. The MACD indicator is gradually narrowing the gap with the signal line, suggesting the possibility of a buy signal reappearing if the market maintains its positive momentum in the next few sessions.

However, according to analyst Han Huu Hau of PVS Securities Joint Stock Company: "The market still harbors risk factors as capital flows have not clearly returned, especially from foreign investors and proprietary trading. The VN-Index needs a breakout session in both points and liquidity to confirm a short-term uptrend."

Despite the market's impressive recovery driven by blue-chip stocks, institutional capital—specifically from securities firms' proprietary trading desks and foreign investors—remained strongly net sellers. This is a factor hindering the index's sustainable recovery in the short term.

Investors should closely monitor liquidity developments, domestic capital flows, and the next actions of blue-chip stocks. The VN-Index holding above 1,200 points and the MACD confirming a buy signal will be crucial in establishing a new trend in the coming period.

Source: https://thoibaonganhang.vn/dong-tien-noi-than-trong-giua-ky-vong-hoi-phuc-162950.html