In which sectors is credit capital flowing?

Credit increases

According to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), as of May 19th, outstanding credit in the entire banking system reached approximately VND 16.49 million billion, an increase of 5.59% compared to the end of 2024 and an increase of 18.67% compared to the same period last year. With this year's credit growth rate of 16%, equivalent to VND 2.5 million billion, there is still approximately VND 1.627 million billion in credit available for the next 7 months.

Loans to customers from the majority of the 27 banks that have published their financial reports recorded growth in the first quarter of 2025. The total outstanding customer loans of these banks increased by 4% compared to the end of the previous year. In terms of absolute balances, state-owned commercial banks continued to lead, with BIDV having the highest customer loan balance, exceeding 2.1 trillion VND, an increase of 2.5% compared to the end of the previous year. Following closely behind was VietinBank, which recorded the highest growth in the group with an increase of 4.6%, bringing the value of customer loans to over 1.8 trillion VND.

Among joint-stock banks, MB continues to lead with customer loans reaching over VND 797,000 billion, a 2.7% increase compared to the end of the previous year. VPBank closely follows with a 5.4% increase, reaching nearly VND 730,000 billion. Following them are Techcombank, ACB,SHB , Sacombank, and HDBank.

Kienlongbank had the highest growth in customer loan balances, increasing by 10.6%. Other banks with high growth include SHB (up 9.2%), Eximbank (up 9.2%), NCB (up 9.6%), and PG Bank (up 9.4%). Only two banks experienced a decrease in customer loans in Q1/2025: ABBank (-0.7%) and Saigonbank (-4.3%).

According to Mr. Nguyen Duc Lenh, Deputy Director of the State Bank of Vietnam's Regional Branch 2, by the end of May 2025, outstanding credit in Ho Chi Minh City is estimated to reach approximately VND 4,085 trillion, an increase of 3.6% compared to the end of 2024 and a 13.2% increase compared to the same period last year. This is the first time outstanding credit in the area has exceeded VND 4 trillion and also records the highest growth rate in recent years. Joint-stock commercial banks have a higher growth rate than state-owned commercial banks, accounting for 50% of the total outstanding credit in the area.

Where is the capital flowing?

Mr. Nguyen Duc Lenh stated that credit capital continues to focus on production and business sectors and support key industries and sectors that drive economic growth. In particular, commercial banks are closely coordinating with trade and investment promotion centers and business associations to provide timely support to the export sector – one of the three pillars of economic growth – amidst global economic volatility due to US tariff policies.

According to Mr. Leinh, low interest rates are the driving force behind credit growth for banks, while also encouraging new investments by businesses, creating a ripple effect throughout the economy. Specifically, short-term VND credit programs for five priority sectors with lending interest rates not exceeding 4% per year have helped numerous small and medium-sized enterprises, export businesses, high-tech businesses, etc., access preferential capital.

In addition, policy credit programs, social housing loans, disbursement of credit packages for forestry and fisheries products, and housing credit packages for people under 35 years old... have created favorable conditions for production and business development, and the real estate market has recovered.

According to the State Bank of Vietnam, as of April 10th, the average lending interest rate for new transactions at banks was 6.34% per year, a decrease of 0.6% per year compared to the end of 2024. Banks have published information on average lending interest rates on their websites for customers to refer to when accessing loans at low interest rates.

Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan (Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics) assessed that over 1.6 trillion VND in loans from now until the end of the year is sufficient to ensure economic growth at 8% and inflation control below 4.5%. Whether this capital can be absorbed in the remaining months of the year depends on the export sector, while external factors are posing challenges, especially regarding tariff policies.

According to Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, an economic expert, if credit growth exceeds 16%, it will lead to the risk of inflation exceeding the targeted 4.5%. Furthermore, rapid credit growth could cause capital to flow into areas such as stocks, gold, and real estate, creating bubbles; therefore, risk control is necessary.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/dong-von-tin-dung-dang-chay-vao-linh-vuc-nao-d303050.html