World coffee prices continue their strong upward trend.

World coffee prices continue to rise amid concerns about global supply, particularly from Brazil, as farmers limit sales and production costs remain high.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the coffee market continued its upward trend in the trading session on April 15th, marking the fourth consecutive positive session for both key commodities.

At the close of trading, Robusta coffee prices rose by more than 2%, to $3,528 per ton. Meanwhile, Arabica coffee futures for May delivery on the ICE US exchange also increased by 0.53%, reaching $6,707 per ton.

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The main driver behind rising coffee prices comes from growing concerns about global supply. In Brazil, the strong appreciation of the Real to its highest level in two years has led farmers to limit sales in order to maximize profits amid previously weak global coffee prices.

Data from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe) shows that Brazil's coffee exports in March reached just over 3 million bags (60kg each), a 7.8% decrease compared to the same period last year. For the first nine months of the 2025-2026 crop year, exports totaled over 29 million bags, a sharp 21.2% drop compared to the previous year, raising concerns about tightening supply in the international market.

In addition, persistently high input costs are also contributing to price support. Although oil prices have cooled to around $90 per barrel, this is still about 30% higher than before the geopolitical conflict, leading to a sharp increase in production costs such as fuel, fertilizers, and agricultural supplies. This forces producers to raise selling prices to maintain profit margins.

Robusta coffee prices rose by more than 2%, reaching $3,528 per ton. (Illustrative image)

Weather conditions also played a significant role, with prolonged drought conditions in Brazil continuing to put pressure on production. Reports from Somar Meteorologia indicate that Minas Gerais, the country's largest Arabica-producing state, recorded only 4.2 mm of rainfall last week, equivalent to 20% of the multi-year average. High temperatures, approaching 30°C, in the southeastern and Bahia regions also increased risks to crops.

According to the latest report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado, Brazil's new coffee crop, currently being harvested, has been revised upwards by 4.65 million bags (60 kg each), reaching a record 75.65 million bags, thanks to favorable weather conditions this year that have improved yields.

New estimates for the 2026-2027 crop year, officially beginning in July, show a 17% increase in production compared to the previous season. Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, and analysts believe this record crop will help improve global supply and curb prices.

Of that, Arabica coffee accounts for the majority of the projected increase, with an estimated production of 49.95 million bags, up 29% from the previous crop year. Robusta coffee production is forecast to reach 25.7 million bags, down 1.2% from the previous crop year.

The consulting firm also released estimates of farmers' sales activity. According to these estimates, only about 14% of the new crop's coffee has been sold, as farmers await better prices. This figure is lower than the five-year average of 23% at the same time.

In the domestic market, the price of bulk green coffee beans in the Central Highlands region increased by 600 VND/kg on April 15th, reaching 87,100 VND/kg, closely reflecting the positive developments in the global market.

According to statistics from the Customs Department ( Ministry of Finance ), in the first quarter, Vietnam exported approximately 590,500 tons of coffee, earning 2.75 billion USD, an increase of 12.5% ​​in volume but a decrease of 7.1% in value compared to the same period last year.

The reason is that the average export price of this commodity is about 4,657 USD per ton, a decrease of 17.6%. On the domestic market, the price of Robusta coffee also fell last week to around 85,000 - 86,000 VND per kg, about 35% lower than the same period last year, the lowest level in the past 3 years.

Coffee production in 2026 is projected to exceed demand by approximately 10 million bags as major producing countries experience bumper harvests. Brazil, the world's largest exporter, is preparing to enter its harvest season from mid-year with a strong expected increase in production, while inventories on international exchanges are rising, causing roasters to limit purchases.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-ca-phe-the-gioi-noi-da-tang-manh-452260.html