Vietnamese rice prices rise to highest level in more than 15 years

Parboiled rice prices from top exporters rose this week due to limited supplies, pushing Vietnamese rates to their highest in more than 15 years and Indian rates to their highest in two months.

Rice packaging line for export at the factory of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company (Can Tho). Photo courtesy

Asian rice market

Parboiled rice prices from top exporters rose this week due to limited supplies, pushing Vietnamese rates to their highest in more than 15 years and Indian rates to their highest in two months.

Vietnam's 5% broken rice prices were offered at $660-665 per tonne on December 21, the highest since mid-July 2008, compared with $655-660 per tonne last week.

A trader in Ho Chi Minh City said tight supply has pushed up rice prices.

Indian rice export prices rose in line with rising trends in other rice exporting countries and production concerns.

India's 5% broken parboiled rice prices were quoted at $505-$512 a tonne this week, their highest in two months, up from $499-$506 a tonne last week.

With the widening gap between Indian rice prices and those of other countries, buyers are now willing to accept higher prices, said an exporter in the eastern city of Kolkata.

India's rice output is expected to fall this year for the first time in eight years, raising the possibility that New Delhi will extend export curbs to keep prices low ahead of a general election due in 2024.

Thailand's 5% broken rice prices rose to their highest since August 2023 at $646-$650 a tonne, compared with $640 a tonne last week.

Traders said the increase was due to large orders from the Philippines this week.

On December 18, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin said that Indonesia has informed the Thai government of its intention to buy two million tons of grain.

US agricultural market

Prices of agricultural products on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) all increased in the session on December 22, led by wheat.

At the close of trading, corn futures for March 2024 delivery rose 0.5 cents (0.11%) to $4.73 a bushel, while wheat futures for the same period rose 3.75 cents (0.61%) to $6.1625 a bushel. Soybeans for March 2024 delivery rose 4.5 cents (0.35%) to $13.0625 a bushel (1 bushel of wheat/soybeans = 27.2 kg; 1 bushel of corn = 25.4 kg).

2024 will be volatile as geopolitical risks that emerged in 2023 will continue into 2024 and intensify. Thus, countries with abundant grain production should increase their strategic reserves to guard against supply chain disruptions.

Northern and southern Brazil will see scattered rain until December 24. The chance of rain will gradually decrease next week. Temperatures in Brazil will be at or above average.

World coffee market

At the end of the weekend trading session, Robusta coffee prices on the ICE Europe - London exchange reversed to decrease. Robusta coffee prices for delivery in March 2024 decreased by 127 USD to 2,837 USD/ton and Robusta coffee futures prices for delivery in May 2023 decreased by 104 USD to 2,766 USD/ton. Trading volume was at an average level.

Similarly, Arabica coffee prices on the ICE US - New York exchange also followed a downward trend. Arabica coffee prices for delivery in March 2024 decreased by 0.8 cents to 192.80 cents/lb and Arabica coffee prices for delivery in May 2023 decreased by 0.85 cents to 190.25 cents/lb (1 lb = 0.4535 kg). Trading volume was average.

The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands provinces decreased by 1,900 - 2,000 VND, fluctuating in the range of 67,000 - 68,000 VND/kg. The price of fresh coffee is trading around 15,000 VND/kg.

Robusta coffee prices reversed sharply on the first day of announcement as funds and speculators rushed to liquidate to avoid risks before the long Christmas weekend. Speculative capital flows shifted to safe-haven assets, pushing gold prices up. Meanwhile, the market expected the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to start its interest rate cutting cycle from March 2024 due to solid US economic indicators, better-than-expected personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, and the USD index continuing to trend lower.

The semi-annual report of the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) under the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised up the production forecast of some major Arabica coffee producing countries in the world such as Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, leading to a 4.19% increase in global coffee production in the 2023/2024 crop year compared to the previous forecast, to 171.40 million bags. This figure will offset the decrease in output of Indonesia, the main Robusta producing country in Southeast Asia, which will decrease by 2.15 million bags, or 18.14% compared to the previous crop year, to only 9.7 million bags in the current crop year.

FAS also adjusted Vietnam's output in the current crop year 2023/2024 to reach 27.50 million bags, up 1.10% compared to the previous crop year, including 26.62 million bags of Robusta coffee, up 1.22% and 880,000 bags of Arabica coffee, down 11.11% compared to the previous coffee crop year, but down 3.8 million bags compared to the previous estimate. In addition, FAS also predicted that the coffee inventory carried over from the 2022/2023 crop year will be only about 339,000 bags of coffee, due to the limited supply of the crop year.

(According to baotintuc.vn)

Source