Pepper price today November 30, 2023, mixed opinions on market trends, forecast for Vietnamese pepper price in 2024. (Source: Ptexim) |
Pepper prices today, November 30, 2023, in the domestic market continued to increase in some key localities, trading from 70,000 - 73,000 VND/kg.
Specifically, pepper price today in Gia Lai is at 70,000 VND/kg.
Pepper prices today in Dong Nai province (70,000 VND/kg); Dak Nong, Dak Lak (71,500 VND/kg); Ba Ria - Vung Tau (72,500 VND/kg) and Binh Phuoc (73,000 VND/kg).
The Vietnam Pepper and Spices Association (VPSA) estimates that global pepper output in the 2024 crop will decrease as output from producing countries is forecast to decrease. However, this decrease is still lower than the decrease in global demand, so pepper prices are forecast to be difficult to increase continuously in the long term.
Except for China, it is forecasted that the upcoming consumption demand of countries around the world may decrease due to the impact of the economic crisis from the conflict in Eastern Europe.
At the same time, the impact of the war in Israel will also affect oil prices, which will further push the world economy into recession, and purchasing power will likely decrease in the near future.
Global geopolitical context: economic recession, Russia-Ukraine conflict, Israel-Hamas will affect the global market including oil prices and the world trade situation in general. Many countries are facing foreign currency shortage.
Vietnam depends on export markets so it has witnessed a decline in general industries and the spice group is no exception.
Besides, the macro management policies, purchasing power and consumption power of major markets, including the US and EU, which are our key markets, will likely have difficulty recovering in the short term.
Meanwhile, Mr. Le Duc Huy, General Director of Dak Lak 2-9 Import-Export Company Limited (Simexco) said that the price of 85,000 - 90,000 VND/kg in 2024 is feasible.
Mr. Huy explained that not only Vietnam but also the output of many pepper growing countries such as India and Brazil is forecasted to be unfavorable due to the impact of bad weather patterns of El Nino.
Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2024, purchases from Western countries may be concentrated at the same time due to depleted inventories. This will help push domestic pepper prices up again.
In the world market, VPSA commented that the market last week continued to show mixed reactions when only Indonesian black pepper recorded a decrease.
Accordingly, in the South Asian region, Indian pepper prices continued to increase since last week. After 2 weeks of decline, domestic pepper prices in Sri Lanka were stable last week.
In Southeast Asia, Indonesian black pepper prices fell last week, while white pepper prices rose as some areas experienced prolonged summers that caused leaf fall.
In Malaysia, only domestic white pepper prices recorded an increase last week. Meanwhile, other types remained stable and unchanged. Similarly, only domestic black pepper prices in Vietnam continued to increase over the past 3 weeks, while other types remained stable and unchanged.
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