The world gold price fluctuated strongly in the last week of June and the beginning of July. Spot gold on the international market jumped to 3,350 USD/ounce on June 26, then plummeted to below 3,250 USD/ounce at the end of the month, before rebounding to around 3,350 USD/ounce as it is now.
Gold tends to increase again in the context of the USD weakening since the end of last week and at times falling to the lowest level in the past 3 and a half years, with the DXY index - measuring the fluctuations of the greenback against 6 other major currencies - reaching 96.5 points.
The turmoil in financial markets has caused gold prices to fluctuate rapidly.
After the Middle East cooled down with the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, the world is facing the existing tension in Ukraine and a series of trade wars between the US and many countries ahead. Besides, there are wars within the US, between Mr. Trump and members of the Republican Party, and even with his once close ally - billionaire Elon Musk.
In the first half of the year, global gold prices increased by about 25% amid increasing policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Strong inflows into gold ETFs in the first quarter of 2025 pushed gold investment demand to its highest level since 2022. Central bank purchases continued to provide strong support for the precious metal.
As of 7:00 pm on July 2 (Vietnam time), the spot gold price was at 3,340 USD/ounce (equivalent to 107 million VND/tael), about 13.7 million VND/tael lower than the domestic gold price as of the end of the afternoon session on July 2.
At the end of the session on July 2, the price of SJC gold bars was at its highest level in the past month. The price of 9999 gold bars at SJC and Doji was listed at 118.7-120.7 million VND/tael (buy - sell), an increase of 200,000 VND for buying compared to the previous session.
Doji announced the price of gold rings type 1-5 at only 115.4-117.4 million VND/tael (buy - sell), equal to the previous session.
The USD/VND exchange rate reached a new record high, reaching 26,323 VND/USD (selling price), up 23 VND compared to the first session of the month.
World instability, gold has more momentum to increase
In a recently published report, the World Bank (WB) forecasts that world gold prices will continue to increase in 2025 and 2026 while the world is still submerged in uncertainty and instability in many places.
Gold prices are expected to rise 35% in 2025 before falling slightly in 2026 as current uncertainties ease, said Jeetendra Khadan, senior economist at the World Bank.
With an increase of more than 25% compared to the beginning of the year, if according to the forecast of WB experts, the gold price may increase by nearly 10% more, equivalent to an increase of more than 300 USD/ounce, to 3,600-3,700 USD/ounce - new high records. At that time, the converted world gold price will be around 119 million VND/tael. If the difference is as it is now, SJC gold bars will be over 130 million VND/tael.
In fact, the world gold price has recently been under great selling pressure, every time there is a sharp increase. Positive signals in the Middle East reduce the demand for gold. On July 1, US President Donald Trump announced that Israel agreed to the conditions for establishing a 60-day ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Previously, Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement after the Trump administration bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities.
In addition, the Trump administration has also reached a framework agreement on trade with two major partners, China and the UK. This is also a factor that restrains the increase in gold prices.
However, the situation in Ukraine is still quite hot. Russia has just declared complete control of the Luhansk region in the east of Ukraine after 3 years of conflict. Russia still maintains a tough stance that territories such as Luhansk, Donetsk..., are under Moscow's "nuclear umbrella" and will never be returned to Ukraine. The White House also announced that the US will suspend the provision of some weapons that it had pledged to provide aid to Ukraine.
Gold investors are also closely watching the $4.5 trillion tax and spending bill - one of Mr. Trump's controversial proposals. The bill was just passed by the US Senate with a narrow 51-50 vote. The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" will permanently extend the personal and corporate tax cuts that Mr. Trump enacted in 2017, while adding new tax incentives. Many, including billionaire Elon Musk, are concerned about rising budget deficits and high inflation.
In addition, the trade war between the Trump administration and many countries could also escalate and push up gold prices. On July 1, President Trump announced that the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs (ranging from 11-50% on countries) would remain unchanged. Mr. Trump also warned that he could cut off trade negotiations and impose higher tariffs on several countries, including Japan.
Gold prices were also supported as the USD was under great pressure after President Donald Trump sent a handwritten letter to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on June 30, asking for an immediate interest rate cut.
Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/gia-vang-chao-dao-trong-con-nong-toan-cau-vang-mieng-sjc-truoc-ap-luc-lon-2417612.html
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