Gasoline prices may increase by 0.6-2.2% if the joint ministries do not set up a stabilization fund.

The Petroleum Institute forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may increase by 453 VND (2.2%) to 21,043 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may increase slightly by 0.6% to 21,196 VND/liter in tomorrow's price adjustment on February 20th.

A Petrolimex gas station on Tran Quang Khai Street (Hanoi). (Photo: Tran Viet/VNA)

A machine learning-based fuel price forecasting model developed by the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) indicates that at the price adjustment period on February 20th, gasoline prices could increase by 0.6-2.2% if the inter- ministerial committee of Finance and Industry and Trade does not allocate or utilize the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund.

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, a data analyst at VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model, which applies Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and supervised learning algorithms in Machine Learning, predicts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline could increase by 453 VND (2.2%) to 21,043 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may only increase slightly by 0.6% to 21,196 VND/liter.

Meanwhile, VPI's model forecasts that retail oil prices this period will tend to decrease, with diesel potentially falling 0.4% to 18,994 VND/liter, kerosene potentially falling 0.5% to 19,373 VND/liter, and fuel oil potentially falling 1.5% to 17,503 VND/kg.

VPI forecasts that the inter-ministerial committee of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue to neither allocate funds to nor utilize the fuel price stabilization fund this time around.

On the world market, during the trading session on February 18 (US time), Brent crude futures rose 0.8% to $75.84 per barrel; US WTI light sweet crude oil rose 1.6% to $71.85 per barrel.

Oil prices rose initially due to supply disruptions in Russia when a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil pumping station on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) reduced the amount of oil transported from Kazakhstan to the world market by 30-40% on February 18.

According to Reuters' calculations, a 30% reduction is equivalent to approximately 380,000 barrels per day. In addition, the Novorossiissk port on Russia's Black Sea had to temporarily suspend operations due to a storm.

Previously, the plan to export oil from this port in February 2025 had been adjusted upwards by 0.24 million tons compared to the original plan, to 2.25 million tons, equivalent to approximately 590,000 barrels per day.

The world's oil supply was also disrupted as cold weather in the US interrupted oil production.

The North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimates that oil production in the U.S. third-largest producing state could fall by as much as 150,000 barrels per day.

However, the upward momentum was somewhat limited by the prospect of a quick return to supply, awaiting the outcome of Russia-US negotiations to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could legitimately unlock Russian oil supplies to the market and exacerbate the supply surplus.

In addition, traders are also awaiting clear signals from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, on whether the group will proceed with its plan to increase production from April onwards or will postpone this decision to a later date.

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