According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, domestic gasoline prices are 29.7-39.5% lower than the same period in the first half of 2022. Specifically, the price of RON 95 gasoline is currently at VND 21,420/liter, down 35%; diesel is 39% lower, kerosene is 37% lower and fuel oil is about 29%.

RON 95 gasoline price may increase to nearly 23,500 VND/liter. Illustrative photo

However, the Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts that domestic fuel prices may increase again in the third quarter when world prices increase. Citing analysis and forecasts from global consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, the Ministry said that the average world crude oil price is at 87-92 USD, meaning the price of finished products is about 90-98 USD/barrel of gasoline and diesel. This level is down nearly 13-23% compared to the same period in 2022, but up about 1-2% compared to the first half of 2023.

With the scenario of the average world price of finished petroleum products at 90 USD per barrel, the Ministry of Industry and Trade calculates that one liter of E5 RON 92 gasoline is at 21,325 VND, RON 95 is 21,597 VND and diesel is 18,115 VND.

If the world price of finished products is 98 USD per barrel, the price of diesel is 19,415 VND/liter; E5 RON 92 is 22,657 VND/liter. The price of RON 95 gasoline is 23,049 VND, nearly 2,000 VND/liter more expensive than the current price, and equivalent to the price threshold in November 2022.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance will operate and use the Price Stabilization Fund flexibly, limiting strong fluctuations in domestic prices compared to world prices (when world prices increase). This will contribute to controlling inflation, supporting economic recovery and restoring the Price Stabilization Fund to have room for operation when the market is potentially unstable and prices tend to increase.

According to the General Department of Customs, petroleum imports in the first five months of the year reached nearly 4.2 million tons, of which nearly 53% was diesel (2.2 million tons), 22% was gasoline of all kinds, and the rest was fuel oil. On average, Vietnam imports more than 0.8 million tons of petroleum of all kinds each month.

The two domestic oil refineries, Nghi Son and Binh Son, produce an average of 1.1 million tons of various types of gasoline and oil per month. The remaining inventory at the terminals was nearly 1.6 million m3 , tons by the end of May.

From August 25, Nghi Son Oil Refinery, which accounts for over 35% of domestic supply, will enter a period of general maintenance, expected to last until the end of September or early October. To avoid a repeat of the supply disruption when the plant undergoes long-term maintenance, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien said on July 4 that he will urge key enterprises to properly implement the plan for allocating a minimum total supply of gasoline and oil.

The Ministry assigned PVN to monitor the refineries, prepare plans to ensure stable operations, and prepare scenarios (technical, human resources, materials, and raw materials) to operate at full capacity and beyond. Key enterprises calculated the output shortage from Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical Plant during the maintenance period to have a plan to create supply for the distribution system and market.

In order for businesses to have enough resources to import and purchase goods, the Ministry of Industry and Trade requested the Ministry of Finance to promptly adjust the costs of petroleum business in the basic price formula. Banks were also asked to create favorable conditions for petroleum businesses in terms of credit limits, preferential interest rates, and foreign currencies so that they have enough resources to import and purchase petroleum.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade said that the contents of the amendment to Decree 95/2022 will focus on the formula, method, time of operation and price announcement. The new Decree will also provide regulations on discounts, petrol and oil trading agents from many sources, reducing intermediaries in the system. The Ministry of Industry and Trade is finalizing the draft based on comments from ministries and branches to report to the Government.

According to VnExpress.net