The economy is showing signs of recovery.

A few days ago, my family planned to have lunch at a restaurant located within a shopping mall. But to our surprise, this shopping center, spanning over 220,000 square meters and the largest in Hanoi , was incredibly bustling and crowded.

We were astonished to find the underground parking lot completely full, and the supermarket, the ready-to-eat food section, and even the restaurant area for diners were all packed.

Looking at that scene, it was hard to imagine the reality that businesses and the economy were still going through a difficult and gloomy period. Although it was a little inconvenient that we had to go to the supermarket to buy ingredients and cook ourselves, deep down I was secretly delighted. Perhaps the economy had started to improve?

A view of Hanoi (Photo: Tien Tuan).

Based on the latest economic data from the General Statistics Office for the third quarter and the first nine months of the year, I see at least five positive signs:

The first positive sign is that September's import and export figures recorded a 3.6% growth after eight consecutive months of negative growth, with exports increasing by 4.6%. While this might seem low at first glance, considering that exports in January were negative 25.9%, April -18.8%, March -11.9%, and June -11.4%, the 4.6% growth in September is a very positive sign.

The second indicator is that FDI enterprises achieved a 0.5% increase in exports, while Vietnamese enterprises saw a 17.9% increase (in previous years, FDI enterprises consistently experienced higher growth than Vietnamese enterprises).

The third positive sign is international tourists. In September alone, the number of international tourists to Vietnam reached over 1 million, bringing the total number of international tourists to Vietnam in the first nine months to 8.9 million, exceeding the initial target of 8 million for the whole of 2023.

At this rate, the number of international tourists to Vietnam in 2023 could reach 12 million – although this is only 66.67% compared to before the Covid-19 pandemic (2019), I personally still consider this a positive sign, because currently, Chinese tourists (who accounted for 30% of the total number of international tourists before the pandemic) are not traveling abroad much.

The fourth indicator is that the number of businesses withdrawing from the market is slowing down. While an average of 15,000 businesses withdrew from the market each month during the first nine months of the year, only 10,838 businesses withdrew in September (4,124 businesses temporarily suspended operations, 5,273 businesses ceased operations pending dissolution procedures, and 1,441 businesses completed dissolution procedures).

Although 135,100 businesses withdrew from the market in the first nine months of the year, 165,200 new businesses entered the market. This means that the number of businesses still increased by 30,100 (including 116,300 newly established businesses, 48,900 businesses resuming operations, 13,200 businesses officially dissolved, 46,100 businesses undergoing dissolution procedures, and 75,000 businesses temporarily suspending operations).

Another important indicator is that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2023 is estimated to have increased by 5.33% year-on-year. While this is only slightly higher than the growth rates of the same periods in 2020 and 2021 during the 2011-2023 period, it shows a more positive trend and a significant improvement compared to the 3.28% growth in the first quarter and the 4.05% growth in the second quarter. Although this growth rate is not as high as expected, it is still considered high globally and within the ASEAN region.

Of course, areas like real estate, corporate bonds, bad bank debt, unemployment rate, job losses, and consumer purchasing power still need more time to recover, but I believe the five signals above are also positive signs for the Vietnamese economy.

What about you? How do you perceive the health of the economy?

Author: Mr. Do Cao Bao holds a Bachelor's degree in Control Mathematics from the Military Technical Academy; he previously worked at the Operations Department of the General Staff and the Vietnam Academy of Science. Mr. Bao is one of the founding members of FPT Group and is currently a member of the Board of Directors of FPT Corporation.

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