The world has just entered the year 2023 with many low notes when facing countless difficulties, most countries' economies have growth rates lower than expected. In the context of general difficulties of the global economy, although the Vietnamese economy still faces many challenges, with the participation of the entire political system, the Government and Prime Minister have taken the initiative. Actively, flexibly, decisively and closely direct Ministries, branches and localities along with the solidarity, trust and support of the People and the business community to remove difficulties, promote growth and maintain growth. Stable macroeconomic stability, thanks to which our country's economy still achieves positive results and becomes a bright spot in the picture of the global economy.
No sooner has the Covid-19 pandemic ended, causing many other serious problems to emerge, causing the world economy to face more challenges than forecast. The Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts are extremely tense and complicated, along with natural disasters, competition and armed conflict, which are one of the direct causes of slow global economic growth. Besides that, inflation is always high; World public debt increased to a record level of 92.000 billion USD; Financial, currency, and real estate markets have many potential risks. Import and export activities are shrinking, food security is complicated... At the end of 2023, international organizations have adjusted their global economic growth forecasts compared to previous forecasts according to the Directions vary, but most forecasts are lower than the growth rate in 2022.
Domestically, due to the adverse impact of the world situation along with the complicated developments of natural disasters and the prolonged consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, Vietnam faces many major and severe difficulties and challenges. masonry. Geopolitical instability, difficulties in the world economy, weak recovery in aggregate demand, high inflation in many countries, and unstable supply chains have affected the domestic economy. Although industrial production has changed positively, it is still slow and has not created a strong acceleration compared to the same period in 2022, mainly due to a decline in orders, increased input costs, and lack of export markets that have affected affecting many industrial production sectors, especially the manufacturing and processing industry. Export and import activities recover slowly due to reduced world demand, real estate continues to be gloomy, and cash flow is limited, especially in the context of high pressure to mature and repay corporate bonds in 2023. . In addition, attracting foreign investment in 2023 has not been effective as investors have not expanded the scale of investment in active projects in Vietnam due to general difficulties of the world economy and of the business community.
In that context, implementing the Resolution of the 2023th Party Congress, with the joint efforts of the entire society, the drastic participation of the entire political system and the business community, Vietnam's economy in 07 shows an increase in economic growth. Growth recovered slightly over the quarters. Notably, during the half term of the 01th Party Congress, the task of economic recovery and development was one of the Party's important highlights. Typically, the Politburo issued Conclusion No. 6 dated June 2021, 19 on a number of key tasks for Covid-24 epidemic prevention and control and socio-economic development; Conclusion 30 dated December 12, 2021 on the Socio-economic recovery and development program... On that basis, the National Assembly and the Government concretize it into Resolutions, programs and plans for recovery and development. economic development. Thanks to that, despite many difficulties, our country's economy still achieved positive results and is considered a bright spot in the "gray picture" of the global economy.
Thanks to the Party's close and timely leadership and direction and the Government's drastic management, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the whole year reached 5,05%, although lower than the set target ( about 6,5%) but still in the high group in the region and the world. All three areas are well developed; Agriculture increased at the highest rate over the past 3 years; Industry recovered well; Services are developing vibrantly, tourism is recovering, welcoming 10 million international visitors - far exceeding the target of 12,6 million visitors; State budget revenue can reach or even exceed planned targets while implementing many exemption and reduction policies and extending payment deadlines for many types of taxes, fees, charges and land use fees. Inflation is at 8%. The consumer price index is estimated to increase by 3,8% (much lower than the target of about 3,5%). Social investment capital increased by 4,5% over the same period last year; Total import-export turnover reached more than 5,9 billion USD, of which the yearly trade surplus was nearly 700 billion USD, bringing our country into the group of 26 leading economies in international trade.
Disbursement of public investment capital in 12 months is estimated to reach 73,5% of the 2023 plan, contributing to increasing the total length of the highway put into operation to more than 1.900km. 2023 is considered a successful year in attracting FDI capital, with a record of registration of 36,6 billion USD, disbursement of more than 23 billion USD and a series of high-quality projects such as phone and component manufacturing projects. electronics, chip manufacturing... Investment capital abroad reached nearly 417 million USD. The currency and foreign exchange markets are basically stable, interest rates are falling. Food security and energy security are guaranteed. The work of building and perfecting institutions, mechanisms, policies, and removing difficulties for production and business has been promoted. The agricultural economic sector, with its meaning as an advantage and pillar of stable economic development, increased by 3,38%; Rice exports are estimated at 8 million tons (about 4,5 billion USD).
Speaking at the National Online Conference summarizing work in 2023 and implementing tasks in 2024, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is optimistic that the socio-economic situation in 2023 will continue the positive recovery trend. , next month is better than the previous month, next quarter is higher than the previous quarter; The Prime Minister emphasized that Vietnam has basically achieved the overall goal set out to persistently stabilize the macro economy, control inflation, promote growth, and ensure major balances of the economy; Social security and people's lives are improved; Prevention of corruption and negativity is promoted; National defense and security are consolidated and strengthened; Foreign affairs and international integration achieved comprehensive and outstanding results; The country's prestige and position and the people's trust in the Party and State have been raised.
From the practice of leadership, management, and executive direction, the Prime Minister affirmed that the results achieved are thanks to the close and timely guidance of the Central Government, directly and regularly the Politburo, The Secretariat, headed by General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong; the efforts of the entire political system, the close, smooth and effective coordination of the National Assembly; the drastic, timely and effective direction and management of the Government, all levels, sectors and localities; the support and active participation of the People and the Business community; cooperation and support from international friends.
Thus, Vietnam's economy in the last months of 2023 shows many positive signs, which will create momentum for 2024 - the year of breakthrough to complete the 5-year economic development plan 2021-2025. In the current difficult and uncertain world context, Vietnam still has positive bright spots. Among them, the Vietnamese economy is optimistically expected by financial institutions and international economic experts to have a higher growth rate in 2024 than in 2023. According to the World Bank (WB), The global recession is a big shock to many highly open economies like Vietnam, however, Vietnam's economy still maintains its growth rate. According to the WB, Vietnam's economy will grow by 4,7% in 2023 and is forecast to grow at 2024% in 5,5 and 2025% in 6, in which the signal of economic recovery will be clearer in the final stages. year.
Meanwhile, the global research report on Vietnam "Vietnam - Stronger but not easier" was just released at the beginning of the year, Standard Chartered Bank Vietnam forecasts an increase Vietnam's GDP growth will reach 6,7% in 2024, of which it is forecast to reach 6,2% in the first half of the year and 6,9% in the second half of the year. This growth rate is much higher than the estimated growth rate of 5,05% in 2023.
The latest Bloomberg survey published on January 08 shows that Vietnam's economy will likely grow 01% in the first quarter of 6,3 and 2024% in the second quarter of 6,5. GDP growth Vietnam's growth rate is forecast by the world's leading economic news agency to reach 2024% in 6 and 2024% in 6,4.
For its part, the British CEBR consulting center assessed that Vietnam is one of two Southeast Asian economies (along with the Philippines) with the ability to "leap" in the World Economic Union rankings during the period. period from now to 2. CEBR said that Vietnam is currently the 2038th largest economy in the world and will increase rapidly to position 34 by 24, before becoming the 2033st economy in the world in 21. According to CEBR, Vietnam is facing a very positive prospect for the next 2038 years. With its existing population advantage, it is likely that Vietnam can achieve its goal of becoming a high-income country by 15. With a large and relatively young population, Vietnam has a chance to surpass most of The current top ranking countries in ASEAN in terms of economy such as Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, will rise to second place in the region by 2045, second only to Indonesia among the Top 2038 world economies.
Although Vietnam's economy is considered a bright spot in the global economic picture in 2023 and many forecasts are optimistic this year. However, it is forecast that in 2024, Vietnam's economy will continue to face many difficulties and challenges, both from unpredictable fluctuations in the world and regional situations and internal limitations and difficulties of the country. economy. But with the spirit of determination to overcome difficulties, with the collective efforts of the entire society, and the drastic participation of the entire political system and business community, our country's economy will continue to overcome, creating strength and power. , creating confidence to strive to complete the planned goals of the 2021-2025 period./.
